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Prediction markets for Gao

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

382394355

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

Yu Deng

John Pardon

Other

Xian-Jin Li

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Sam Raskin

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

Jiaoyang Huang

21

18

16

13

11

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

8478523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23744

4212

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.27%chance

9118824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4733

4397

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.39%chance

13877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

981

Will the Gaowangjie Crocodile Newt (Tylototriton gaowangjienensis) become Extinct by 2100?

Aug 27, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.96%chance

3268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

754

312

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Laura Gao become an interact fellow

Sep 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Bradley Voytek (or Richard Gao/Tom Donoghue/any member of his lab) win Kavli Prize in Neuroscience by 2050?

Sep 21, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Would you rather vote for trump or laura gao?

Apr 6, 5:20 PM

00

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