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Gao News

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

312320741

OptionProbability

Jack Thorne

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

John Pardon

Javier Fresan

Yu Deng

Sam Raskin

Yibo Gao

Other

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Song Sun

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Frederick Manners

David Budden

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

21

20

13

10

7

6

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

7173329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24807

4031

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.36%chance

8918719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4825

4292

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Oct 21, 4:37 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

74.44%chance

301118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1733

974

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.25%chance

12802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

969

Will the Gaowangjie Crocodile Newt (Tylototriton gaowangjienensis) become Extinct by 2100?

Aug 27, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.96%chance

3268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

754

312

Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026

Jun 11, 5:14 AMJun 19, 3:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will Laura Gao become an interact fellow

Sep 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Bradley Voytek (or Richard Gao/Tom Donoghue/any member of his lab) win Kavli Prize in Neuroscience by 2050?

Sep 21, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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