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Top stories

Japan Pledges ¥810 Billion to Gavi After Ishiba–Gates Meeting

Japan Pledges ¥810 Billion to Gavi After Ishiba–Gates Meeting

Authors

10

1 year ago

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Authors

13

1 year ago

Trump Holds White House Meeting With Bill Gates

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Gates

Will Bill Gates be cryopreserved?

Aug 28, 7:08 AMSep 5, 6:59 AM

5.16%chance

212891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2578

832

Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?

Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

20.56%chance

302137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

697

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.79%chance

162013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

620

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

31.32%chance

351387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

650

When will Larian Studios announce Baldur's Gate 4?

Dec 28, 10:30 AMNov 13, 10:59 PM

201210

OptionProbability

Never

Other

2025

2026

2024

96

3

1

1

0

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2040?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

13524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

635

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2035?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.67%chance

10473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

118

Will Bill Gates (Microsoft, philanthropy) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 11, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.54%chance

8324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

494

120

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.53%chance

13291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

915

Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?

Aug 2, 1:33 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.54%chance

4195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Mar 15, 5:46 PMMar 15, 5:41 PM

2176

OptionProbability

by dec 31 2026

2029 or later

By Dec 31 2028

By Dec 31 2027

74

14

7

6

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone?

Apr 1, 10:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.1%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

92

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