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Top stories

Japan Pledges ¥810 Billion to Gavi After Ishiba–Gates Meeting

Japan Pledges ¥810 Billion to Gavi After Ishiba–Gates Meeting

Authors

10

9 months ago

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Authors

13

9 months ago

Trump Holds White House Meeting With Bill Gates

Authors

12

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Gates

Will Bill Gates be cryopreserved?

Aug 28, 7:08 AMSep 5, 6:59 AM

5.16%chance

212891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2578

832

Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?

Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

20.56%chance

302137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

697

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

31.32%chance

351387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

650

When will Larian Studios announce Baldur's Gate 4?

Dec 28, 10:30 AMNov 13, 10:59 PM

201210

OptionProbability

Never

Other

2025

2026

2024

96

3

1

1

0

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.43%chance

12787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

974

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2040?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

13524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

635

Will Golden Gate Park charge for street parking by 2026-06-30?

Feb 24, 12:01 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

4521

OptionProbability

No metered parking happens before 2026-06-30

2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31

2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30

Before 2025-09-30

2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31

90

3

3

2

2

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2035?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.48%chance

10468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

113

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.4%chance

13284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

917

Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?

Aug 2, 1:33 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.54%chance

4195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Apr 1, 10:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.16%chance

4109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

113

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

4/2026

Other

3/2026

2/2026

1/2026

4/2025

3/2025

21

21

20

16

10

6

5

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