OptionProbability
Other
Elon Musk
Jeff Bezos
Bill Gates
Mr. Beast
Barack Obama
Donald Trump
Satoshi Nakomoto
Robert Caro
Kamala Harris
Gwern Branwen
Jensen Huang
Sarah Paine
Sam Altman
Narendra Modi
Joe Biden
JD Vance
roon
Geoffrey Hinton
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
Terence Tao
Ilya Sutskever
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Tim Cook
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Buffett
Taylor Swift
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
pope Francis
Scott Alexander
Leonardo DiCaprio
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Peter Thiel
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
16
11
11
11
11
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)
[AUS] Red flag during qualifying
[AUS] At least 3 DNF
[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session
[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team
[AUS] winner has no WDC title
[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)
[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium
[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race
[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying
[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race
[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)
[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race
[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium
[JAP] Antonelli wins the race
[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying
[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race
[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race
[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race
[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions
[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying
[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race
[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] Red flag during qualifying
[MON] Red flag during the race
[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track
[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race
[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[MON] Three different teams on the podium
[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)
[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)
[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BAR] Hamilton on the podium
[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5
[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)
[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes
[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits
[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying
[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship
[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying
[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4
[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)
[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race
[SPA] Red flag in qualifying
[SPA] Antonelli wins the race
[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3
[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium
[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10
[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2
[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3
[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4
[HUN] Antonelli on the podium
[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10
[ZAN] Leclerc on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes pole position (main qualifying)
[ZAN] Gasly finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ITA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[ITA] Italian driver wins the race
[ITA] Red Flag during the race
[ITA] Yuki Tsunoda scores a point
[ITA] Antonelli finishes the race in top 6
[MAD] Yellow flag first lap of the race
[MAD] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MAD] Kimi Antonelli wins the race
[MAD] Russel qualifies outside the top 5
[MAD] Verstappen on the podium
[MAD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Colapinto scores points
[MAD] Linblad scores points
[MAD] An Audi scores points
[MAD] Three different teams on the podium
[AZE] Kimi Antonelli scores more points than George Russel
[AZE] Lewis Hamilton finishes ahead of Charles Leclerc (race)
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Red Flag during qualifying or race
[AZE] One Aston Martin finishes the race (lapped ok)
[AZE] Verstappen on podium
[AZE] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AZE] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
Leave it open for the upcoming GP
[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUS] Yellow flag first lap
[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)
[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day
[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session
[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session
[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)
[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start
[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped
[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race
[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium
[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)
[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)
[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?
[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF
[JAP] Yellow flag first lap
[JAP] Red flag in qualifying
[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying
[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3
[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)
[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)
[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues
[JAP] Verstappen on the podium
[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race
[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race
[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race
[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race
[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race
[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race
[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race
[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race
[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race
[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes
[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race
[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race
[BAR] Mercedes driver wins
[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4
[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying
[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)
[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium
[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race
[AUT] Red flag during qualifying
[AUT] Physical safety car during the race
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3
[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)
[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)
[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)
[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race
[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)
[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race
[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)
[GBR] The same driver wins both races
[GBR] Red flag during the main race
[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying
[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds
[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race
[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race
[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race
[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race
[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying
[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)
[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race
[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race
[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6
[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying
[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS
[HUN] Ferrari pole position
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3
[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10
[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium
[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda scores at least one point (sprint counts)
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda finishes either sprint or feature race ahead of Lawson
[ZAN] Same winner of the sprint and main race
[ZAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying or main qualifying
[ZAN] Ferrari pole position in the sprint qualifying
[ZAN] Antonelli scores more points than Russell over the entire weekend
[ZAN] Antonelli on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes driver wins the sprint race
[ZAN] Physical safety car during the main race
[ZAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[ZAN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[ZAN] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ZAN] first and second driver finish with a gap of less than 5 seconds in the main race
[ITA] Red Flag during qualifying
[ITA] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[ITA] Ferrari driver wins the race
[ITA] Aston Martin driver scores points
[ITA] Hadjar drives in the race
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in qual or race
[ITA] Gasly finishes the race in top 5
[ITA] Bearman scores points (top 10)
[ITA] A Ferrari on the podium
[ITA] Leclerc finishes the race ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Leclerc misses race
[MAD] Red flag during qualifying or race
[MAD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MAD] Carlos Sainz scores points
[MAD] At least five cars retire (DNF)
[MAD] Hamilton scores more points than Russell
[MAD] Leclerc crashes during any session and cannot participate in the rest of that session (FP, qualy or race)
[MAD] At least one car will be disqualified due to plank wear. Doesn't matter if they later get reinstated
[MAD] An Audi reaches Q3
[MAD] A Ferrari on the podium
[MAD] Antonelli leads at the end of the first lap of the main race
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
73
67
63
60
60
44
40
32
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance
Gavin Newsom
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Tucker Carlson
Gretchen Whitmer
Donald Trump
None
Ron DeSantis
Andy Beshear
JB Pritzker
Elizabeth Warren
Nikki Haley
Michelle Obama
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Tulsi Gabbard
Jamie Dimon
Mark Kelly
Donald Trump Jr.
John Fetterman
Mark Cuban
Ruben Gallego
Ro Khanna
Vivek Ramaswamy
Joe Biden
Tim Scott
Katie Hobbs
Greg Abbott
Mike Johnson
Ted Cruz
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Ivanka Trump
Elon Musk
Sam Altman
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Elise Stefanik
Kristi Noem
Nicole Shanahan
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
George Clooney
Tom Hanks
Steven Pinker
Patrick Stewart
George R R Martin
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Kanye West
Doug Burgum
Jeff Jackson
Glenn Youngkin
Tim Walz
Barack Obama
Oprah Winfrey
Hillary Clinton
Joe Rogan
29
20
10
8
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gavin Newsom
Other
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Raphael Warnock
Josh Shapiro
JB Pritzker
Andy Beshear
Mark Kelly
James Talarico
Gretchen Whitmer
Colin Allred
Amy Klobuchar
Rahm Emanuel
There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism
Cory Booker
Chris Van Hollen
Ro Khanna
Abdul El-Sayed
Jared Polis
Tim Walz
Connor Duffy
[Invalid - Duplicate]
Yishan Wong
Adolf Hitler
Mark Cuban
Michelle Obama
Andrew Cuomo
John Fetterman
Stephen A. Smith
Ritchie Torres
Elissa Slotkin
Jill Biden
Wes Moore
Invalid
Jasmine Crockett
Invalid
Ruben Gallego
Hakeem Jeffries
Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)
Zohran Mamdani
Jacob Frey
Noam Chomsky
Mikie Sherrill
Taylor Swift
Liz Cheney
Kirsten Gillibrand
Ezra Klein
Andrew Yang
Invalid
Josh Green
Chris Murphy
Bernie Sanders
John Stewart
Jamie Dimon
George Washington
Paris Hilton
Donald Trump
Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione
George Clooney
Bob brooks
18
17
15
9
6
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Snape is black
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
It's woke
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Dobby makes an appearance
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
At least one of the actors is transgender
It ends on a cliff hanger
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Hermione is white
Hermione is Indian
Features an explicitly transgender character
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Premieres in 2027
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
Gandalf is black
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Zendaya is cast in the show
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99
98
97
96
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
93
91
90
90
90
90
87
84
83
81
80
78
73
68
67
66
65
65
63
63
59
57
52
42
42
41
38
33
32
30
30
29
28
28
27
26
25
25
25
25
24
23
22
20
18
17
16
14
14
13
13
12
12
10
10
8
7
7
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Gauss
Archimedes
Euler
@121
Other
Von Neumann
Alexander Grothendieck
Newton
Kurt Gödel
David Hilbert
Augustin-Louis Cauchy
Pythagoras
Euclid (of Geometry)
Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)
Erdos (on amphetamines)
Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)
Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)
Ramanujan
Poincare
Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)
Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)
Trick question; there are no mathematicians.
Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night
sixtynine, you filthy casuals
David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)
The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis
Ludwig Wittgenstein
John Conway (group theory, among others)
the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero
Descartes
Leibniz
Bourbaki
Laplace
@Mira
Georg Cantor
Frank Ramsey
Fermat
Emmy Noether
Ada Lovelace
.
p
Terry Tao
DottedCalculator
GPT8
Riemann
Claude Shannon
God
Alan Turing
Grigori Perelman
Olga Ladyzhenskaya
Weyl, Weyl
John Gabriel
Michael Atiyah
59
22
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Covid
Russia-Ukraine War
Brexit
Israel-Hamas War
US Withdrawal from Afghanistan
January 6th
LLMs
George Floyd Protests
Bitcoin
The Rise of China
Private Spaceflight
Violent repression of women in Iran
Russia's takeover of the US political establishment
New York v Trump 2024
Tigray War
The Epstein Files
BRICS Expansion
Meme stocks
Enshittification
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
51
51
51
40
21
19
OptionProbability
Other
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Noam Shazeer
Alec Radford
Daniel Hillis
Ben Goertzle
Alan Turing
Andrej Karpathy
Yann LeCun
Demis Hassabis
Paul Christiano
Charles Babbage
Jürgen Schmidhuber
John Schulman
Noam Brown
Liang Wenfeng
Alex Krizhevsky
Donald Knuth
George Boole
Kaiming He
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Marvin Minsky
Judea Pearl
Raymond Solomonoff
Yoshua Bengio
Andrew Ng
Fei-Fei Li
Dario Amodei
David Silver
@jim
24
19
11
8
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1155
893
OptionProbability
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama
Other
49
27
12
9
2
1
OptionProbability
Other
[None - Position will cease to exist]
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Greg Brockman
Sam Altman
Bret Taylor
Larry Summers
Adam D'Angelo
Andrej Karpathy
Eric Schmidt
Paul Graham
Peter Thiel
Wojciech Zaremba
Ben Horowitz
Jessica Livingston
Marc Benioff
Sheryl Sandberg
Tim Cook
John Doerr
Reed Hastings
Fei Fei Lee
Alexander Wang
George Hotz
Brad Lightcap
Bob Mcgrew
Peter Welinder
Jason Kwon
Mark Chen
Helen Toner
Ilya Sutskever
Emmett Shear
Dario Amodei
Satya Nadela
Jeff Bezos
Demis Hassabis
Robin Li
Clément Delangue
Lila Ibrahim
Alex Karp
Reid Hoffman
Raquel Urtasun
Marc Andreessen
Aidan Gomez
Sandra Rivera
Gary Marcus
Jaime Teevan
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Anna Makanju
Shane Legg
Andrew Ng
Pushmeet Kohli
Yann LeCun
Mark Zuckerberg
Yoshua Bengio
Hinton
Marissa Mayer
Spencer Rascoff
Garry Tan
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2026
Will he have a child by mid 2026? Best wishes to him and his family
He writes a book which appears on the nytimes bestseller list by mid 2029
He joins George Mason University by mid 2026
He spends at least a year overseas by mid 2029
He wins a Nobel prize by mid 2036
He joins Manifold and is verified by mid 2026
He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2024
He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2025
He retires from academic life by mid 2024
Harvard withdraws or softens the results of the investigations which found against him by mid 2025
Harvard apologizes for the claims against him and admits they were without merit by mid 2025
64
57
44
33
31
24
24
0
0
0
0
0
