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Prediction markets for Germán

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

58.92%chance

8218714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

871

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.12%chance

174177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

831

Will German trains be on time again by 2030?

May 23, 2:10 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

40%chance

172891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

372571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

599

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.74%chance

192320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Will the German Interior Ministry succeed in banning the right-wing "Compact" magazine?

Jul 16, 8:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.41%chance

61800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2343

427

Will the German standard VAT rate increase by December 31st 2025?

Feb 12, 6:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

12.86%chance

71603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

384

Will the German Football Federation successfully transition to Nike by 2027?

Mar 21, 10:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

93.57%chance

101565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

787

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

Mar 3, 9:59 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

37.34%chance

101090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

787

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will one of the significant German car manufacturers cease to exist by 2030?

Apr 9, 1:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.38%chance

10598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

708

Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

63%chance

7305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

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