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Prediction markets for Glen

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

86%chance

8222307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2402

456

Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?

Jun 4, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

162753

OptionProbability

[none of these happen in 2026]

New Glenn Return to Flight

Starship Refueling Demo

Neutron launch

73

13

12

2

How many times will New Glenn launch successfully in 2026?

Oct 8, 12:34 AMJan 1, 2:36 AM

232470

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 2

Above 8

Above 10

Above 4

Above 6

13

1

1

1

0

0

By when will New Glenn next launch?

May 29, 2:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91855

OptionProbability

2028-12-31

2027-12-31

2027-06-30

2027-03-31

2026-12-31

92

84

70

48

17

Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?

Jun 17, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.41%chance

91319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

614

Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?

Jun 21, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.54%chance

161015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1806

554

Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)

Apr 21, 4:07 PMOct 21, 4:06 PM

3.08%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

561

18

Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?

May 29, 6:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.42%chance

6487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

411

24

Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?

Jun 2, 4:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.69%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

740

541

Will Orion CMC's acquisition affect Glencore's DRC assets' output by 2026-12-31?

Feb 9, 6:02 PMFeb 9, 6:02 PM

41.44%chance

183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

937

How many times will New Glenn launch in 2027?

Jun 22, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

580

OptionProbability

Other

3

2

1

0

37

23

16

13

10

What plays in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 27, 7:08 PMMay 28, 7:06 PM

360

OptionProbability

Book of Mormon

Sunset Blvd

Hamilton

Waiting for Godot

Moulin Rouge

Glengarry Glen Ross

The Great Gatsby

Dead Outlaw

Buena Vista Social Club

Oh, Mary!

Good Night, and Good Luck

Gypsy

Othello

100

100

80

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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