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Prediction markets for Gonçalo Sa

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

9.02%chance

223116039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20197

4146

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.28%chance

2186836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65409

1529

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.63%chance

6476090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45370

2204

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.91%chance

3026097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31979

3127

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

3517355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7670

470

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Jason Ween Love Stocks: Multi-Stonk Drifting

Apr 10, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

806436

OptionProbability

Sa Stock

Selena Stock

Alyssa Stock

Other

80

12

7

2

Will The Safeway Marina project get approved as proposed?

Jan 10, 7:14 AMJan 1, 7:13 AM

39.07%chance

141203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5646

4071

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

Who will win American Samoa in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:17 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

44

27

18

12

Who will win American Samoa in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:17 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Other

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

57

20

13

10

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