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Prediction markets for Gonçalo Sa

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

21295967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7344

6758

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.22%chance

6067954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47669

2098

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.83%chance

1837402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22230

4498

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.72%chance

5117110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24146

3821

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

1.96%chance

3516750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8275

457

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.88%chance

3912826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9087

3868

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

346931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6506

4501

Jason Ween Love Stocks: Multi-Stonk Drifting

Apr 10, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

806436

OptionProbability

Sa Stock

Selena Stock

Alyssa Stock

Other

80

12

7

2

Will The Safeway Marina project get approved as proposed?

Jan 10, 7:14 AMJan 1, 7:13 AM

37.74%chance

131103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5546

4231

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

20

20

20

20

20

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

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