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Prediction markets for Gonçalo Sa

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

19885389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8337

4727

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

Apr 16, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.72%chance

5954539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40585

2464

Trump sends National Guard to San Francisco by end of 2025?

Aug 23, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

3943844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45591

2193

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.68%chance

2236231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34661

2885

If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?

Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.47%chance

5131182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23110

6062

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.22%chance

10025153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4662

1436

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.08%chance

1817139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24776

2392

Will @squirtle_says get abs in 2025?

Apr 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

399475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12468

9595

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

317843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6627

496

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

7235

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

49

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