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Prediction markets for Googling

Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?

Jan 22, 4:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.57%chance

3470816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59009

6528

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

Jan 22, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.9%chance

6267735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65499

3628

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

11559396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13166

10640

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

3542971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41906

2162

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:17 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

3.88%chance

12127223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11755

734

Will Google stock $GOOG be higher than 300$ at the end of the year?

Oct 6, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.39%chance

4424273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1704

587

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

2.34%chance

5911862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6464

155

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Is Manifold the next google?

Nov 4, 11:05 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

314719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

958

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.86%chance

473297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

1123

Will Google look substantially different as a company in 36 months?

May 10, 11:42 AMMay 1, 11:31 AM

26.18%chance

221183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1679

595

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

38

34

17

11

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