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Prediction markets for Googling

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.16%chance

13272522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14337

10516

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

31.84%chance

778757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

1069

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.11%chance

493399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

1219

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

312454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

575

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

222242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

716

Will Google look substantially different as a company in 36 months?

May 10, 11:42 AMMay 1, 11:31 AM

12.23%chance

222183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2679

373

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.04%chance

201530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

1937

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Dec 14, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.22%chance

131134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

865

Google Trends: Will "bitcoin" search hit all-time high before 2030?

Feb 5, 9:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.09%chance

81075

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

687

Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027?

Jun 10, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.6%chance

14990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

680

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.16%chance

9722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.82%chance

5402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

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