Grace News

Judge Brann Rules Trump Appointee Habba Illegally Leads New Jersey U.S. Attorney’s Office

7 months ago

Grace Thorp aka Joan (Permanent Stock)

May 3, 8:38 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

143261443

OptionProbability

YES

2007

1838

What will happen with HMYS's ❗Ṁ1.96 BILLION❗ debt to Levi Finkelstein?

Jan 19, 7:13 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

3322897

OptionProbability

@hmys does not pay back the loan on time

Levi Finkelstein will have not interacted with Manifold for at least a month at the time HMTS's debt is supposed to be paid back.

Levi forgives the debt in a stunning act of grace

The full debt is completely paid off on time, leaving Levi almost two billion mana richer

@Mira waves a wand of debt cancellation, rewriting reality so the debt appears to have never been valid.

AGI renders 2 year concerns meaningless

@hmys declares bankruptcy, their assets are liquidated, and @levifinkelstein collects their balance, writing off the difference as an acceptable loss

@jim pays off the debt on @hmys' behalf

@hmys breaks Manifold rules to farm mana to pay off their debt (not including incidents before this was submitted)

Manifold devalue mana 1000000000000x, making it easy for hmys to buy mana with USD to pay the debt

100

Grace Thorp Stock [Permanent]

May 3, 9:02 PMMay 4, 4:59 AM

194751

OptionProbability

YES

362

322

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

Aug 7, 12:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62443

OptionProbability

2024, January to June

2024, July to December

2025

2028

2029

2023, October to December

2026

2027

2023, August to September

What will be the name of my 1st female child?

Nov 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

102414

OptionProbability

Mae

Other

Robin

Melody

May

Marin

Olivia

Grace

Jade

Rose

Emma

Ava

Mia

Luna

Emily

Aria

Ella

Nova

Willow

Alice

Autumn

Cora

Caroline

Anna

Serenity

Juniper

Moana

elsa

When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch? (by month)

Apr 11, 10:07 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

72139

OptionProbability

Before November 2027

Before October 2027

Before September 2027

Before August 2027

Before July 2027

Before February 2027

Before March 2027

Before May 2027

Before June 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before January 2027

In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch?

Jan 7, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

151772

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2024

2025

Will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch in 2027?

Oct 16, 3:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75%chance

13830

OptionVotes

YES

301

Will "Lack of Social Grace is a Lack of Skill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 3, 9:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.05%chance

3540

OptionVotes

YES

1160

976

Which member of the Grace is 4 Guys Too Group Chat will have their wedding first?

Mar 21, 4:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2349

OptionProbability

Major

Tucker

Tim

Other

Eric

Michael

Vivek

Ansh

Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be renamed before the end of Trump's second term?

Apr 12, 5:08 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

21%chance

6126

OptionVotes

YES

194

Will "The problem of graceful deference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Grace Thorp aka Joan (Permanent Stock)

What will happen with HMYS's ❗Ṁ1.96 BILLION❗ debt to Levi Finkelstein?

Grace Thorp Stock [Permanent]

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

What will be the name of my 1st female child?

When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch? (by month)

In what year will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch?

Will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch in 2027?

Will "Lack of Social Grace is a Lack of Skill" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Which member of the Grace is 4 Guys Too Group Chat will have their wedding first?

Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be renamed before the end of Trump's second term?

Will "The problem of graceful deference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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