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Prediction markets for Grant

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.54%chance

15987897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4274

2558

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

19.46%chance

22339507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7114

3845

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.11%chance

82353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2072

483

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

592227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

1058

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

May 15, 7:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

321823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

962

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

37.17%chance

81572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.06%chance

161009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

955

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Mar 31, 9:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44.18%chance

141005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

890

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the the NJ prediction market case by the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.36%chance

6618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

772

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.48%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

774

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