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Prediction markets for Grant

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.2%chance

15486803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6125

1486

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.22%chance

21738369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6600

3977

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.9%chance

2116066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17426

6658

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6351

3156

Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2026?

Aug 7, 5:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

179753

OptionProbability

India

UK

Other

China

Malaysia

Pakistan

Germany

Russia

France

45

20

13

6

4

4

3

2

2

Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto v. Durnell before 2026?

May 19, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

158661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4781

3401

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.06%chance

738614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7681

3695

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.8%chance

572101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

1086

FDA/WHOOP Warning Letter - Will the FDA force Whoop to suspend BP Insights features (until 510k clearance is granted)?

Aug 19, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

42.14%chance

91206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.33%chance

15734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

796

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

Apr 4, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.98%chance

4305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

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