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Top stories

ADL CEO Greenblatt Criticizes NYC Candidate Mamdani Over Outreach, Citing 'Globalize the Intifada'; CNBC Corrects False Claims; CAIR Seeks NGO Funding Clarity

ADL CEO Greenblatt Criticizes NYC Candidate Mamdani Over Outreach, Citing 'Globalize the Intifada'; CNBC Corrects False Claims; CAIR Seeks NGO Funding Clarity

Authors

6

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Greenblatt

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

226891

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

97

96

92

87

12

0

0

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?

Apr 26, 5:22 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

89.78%chance

203919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

202

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?

Sep 7, 11:13 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

8.4%chance

111235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

904

165

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

66.39%chance

12380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

104

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

48.72%chance

11233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

110

Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:23 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

52.96%chance

8202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

110

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