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Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

8.07%chance

15129276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6080

1265

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Dec 14, 11:29 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

43.13%chance

1397306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

811

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

14.78%chance

1285354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

1387

Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jun 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

35.17%chance

353820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

376

Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 9, 5:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

63.55%chance

241880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

773

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

387

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

21.91%chance

31111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

2495

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

291044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

973

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

17619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

876

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Korean reunification be complete by 2045?

Feb 16, 6:44 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

21.29%chance

13333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

939

Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?

Apr 14, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6156

OptionProbability

Victoria Dávila

Sergio Fajardo

Gustavo Bolívar

Other

Juan Manuel Galán

Claudia López

María Fernanda Cabal

María José Pizarro

Germán Vargas Lleras

Miguel Uribe Turbay

23

14

14

13

7

7

6

6

6

5

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