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Gustavo Bolívar News

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.05%chance

15329494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4170

1484

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

4410899

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump

Yulia Navalnaya

UNRWA

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Greta Thunberg

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Vladimir Putin

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

The International Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

International Court of Justice

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Narges Mohammadi

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

71

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Dec 14, 11:29 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

43.13%chance

1397306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

811

Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?

Apr 14, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

177198

OptionProbability

Abelardo de la Espriella

Iván Cepeda

Sergio Fajardo

Paloma Valencia

Roy Barreras

Victoria Dávila

Other

Juan Manuel Galán

María Fernanda Cabal

Claudia López

Gustavo Bolívar

María José Pizarro

Germán Vargas Lleras

Miguel Uribe Turbay

39

32

6

6

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

11.83%chance

1305705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

1340

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

42131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3094

324

Will Gustavo Petro stay in the U.S. longer than 5 consecutive days starting Feb 3, 2026?

Jan 27, 8:57 PMFeb 9, 8:54 PM

23.12%chance

111758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

548

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

387

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7442

5382

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Gustavo Petro be ousted or resign before his term ends?

Jan 6, 11:36 AMAug 7, 11:59 PM

14.82%chance

6431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

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