Gustavo Bolívar News

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.36%chance

15429506

OptionVotes

YES

4091

1496

Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?

Apr 14, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3419529

OptionProbability

Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella

Paloma Valencia

Victoria Dávila

Sergio Fajardo

Gustavo Bolívar

Other

Juan Manuel Galán

Claudia López

Miguel Uribe Turbay

María Fernanda Cabal

María José Pizarro

Germán Vargas Lleras

Roy Barreras

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

6013365

OptionProbability

Other

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Pope Leo XIV

Yulia Navalnaya

International Court of Justice

Narges Mohammadi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Netanyahu

Greta Thunberg

Narendra Modi

Nathan Law

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

UNRWA

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Donald Trump

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

Francesca Albanese

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

Haitham bin Tariq Al Said

Any Kurdish person (or the Kurdish people

Shehbaz Sharif

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Dec 14, 11:29 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

45.54%chance

1397356

OptionVotes

YES

1636

861

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

11.83%chance

1305705

OptionVotes

YES

1756

1340

Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

Feb 20, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

344493

OptionProbability

Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister)

Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)

Christopher Luxon (New Zealand Prime Minister)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel Prime Minister)

Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine Prime Minister)

Anthony Albanese (Australia Prime Minister)

Nayib Bukele (El Salvador President)

Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa Prime Minister)

Vladimir Putin (Russia President)

Donald Trump (United States President)

Javier Milei (Argentina President)

Emmanuel Macron (France President)

100

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.99%chance

52320

OptionVotes

YES

3005

333

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

1960

387

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

7442

5382

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

YES

987

944

Will Gustavo Petro be ousted or resign before his term ends?

Jan 6, 11:36 AMAug 7, 11:59 PM

14.42%chance

7467

OptionVotes

YES

244

Gustavo Bolívar News

Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

Will Gustavo Petro be ousted or resign before his term ends?

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