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Gustavo Bolívar News

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.36%chance

15429506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4091

1496

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

6213596

OptionProbability

Other

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

UNRWA

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

Pope Leo XIV

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Yulia Navalnaya

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Donald Trump

Netanyahu

International Court of Justice

Greta Thunberg

Narendra Modi

Nathan Law

Narges Mohammadi

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Francesca Albanese

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

Haitham bin Tariq Al Said

Any Kurdish person (or the Kurdish people

Shehbaz Sharif

19

18

10

9

9

8

6

5

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Dec 14, 11:29 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

46.28%chance

1397375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

877

Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

Feb 20, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

375873

OptionProbability

Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister)

Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel Prime Minister)

Christopher Luxon (New Zealand Prime Minister)

Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)

Vladimir Putin (Russia President)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine Prime Minister)

Anthony Albanese (Australia Prime Minister)

Nayib Bukele (El Salvador President)

Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa Prime Minister)

Emmanuel Macron (France President)

Javier Milei (Argentina President)

Donald Trump (United States President)

100

97

59

57

29

27

18

17

13

12

11

11

11

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

11.83%chance

1305705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

1340

Will anyone be at least 140 years old by 2072?

Jun 11, 3:14 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30.98%chance

525666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

737

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.99%chance

52320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3005

333

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.48%chance

41926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7792

5300

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Gustavo Pietro go to jail by the end of 2028?

Jun 27, 8:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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