Gustavo Bolívar News

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Dec 13, 7:58 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

13.05%chance

15329494

OptionVotes

YES

4170

1484

Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?

Apr 14, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2816438

OptionProbability

Paloma Valencia

Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella

Victoria Dávila

Juan Manuel Galán

Sergio Fajardo

Gustavo Bolívar

María Fernanda Cabal

María José Pizarro

Germán Vargas Lleras

Roy Barreras

Other

Claudia López

Miguel Uribe Turbay

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

5212503

OptionProbability

Other

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Donald Trump

Yulia Navalnaya

International Court of Justice

Narges Mohammadi

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Greta Thunberg

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

UNRWA

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Francesca Albanese

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Dec 14, 11:29 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

43.13%chance

1397306

OptionVotes

YES

1698

811

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

11.83%chance

1305705

OptionVotes

YES

1756

1340

Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

Feb 20, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

263163

OptionProbability

Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)

Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel Prime Minister)

Christopher Luxon (New Zealand Prime Minister)

Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine Prime Minister)

Anthony Albanese (Australia Prime Minister)

Vladimir Putin (Russia President)

Nayib Bukele (El Salvador President)

Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa Prime Minister)

Javier Milei (Argentina President)

Emmanuel Macron (France President)

Donald Trump (United States President)

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.2%chance

52181

OptionVotes

YES

3144

319

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

1960

387

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

7442

5382

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

YES

987

944

Will Gustavo Petro be ousted or resign before his term ends?

Jan 6, 11:36 AMAug 7, 11:59 PM

14.82%chance

6431

OptionVotes

YES

240

Gustavo Bolívar News

Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Prediction markets for Gustavo Bolívar

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

Will Gustavo Petro be ousted or resign before his term ends?

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