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Top stories

Bitcoin Pioneer Hal Finney, First Bitcoin Transaction Recipient, Dies 11 Years Ago; Predicted $10 Million BTC

Bitcoin Pioneer Hal Finney, First Bitcoin Transaction Recipient, Dies 11 Years Ago; Predicted $10 Million BTC

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Hal Finney

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8217548

OptionProbability

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Paul Le Roux

13

1

1

1

1

1

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMJul 7, 6:59 AM

8912231

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Craig Wright

Sinclair Chen

Satoshi Nakamoto

Peter Todd

An Intelligence Agency

Wei Dai

Dorian Nakamoto

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

[INVALID]

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

31

24

14

9

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

265813

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

33

29

15

11

7

4

2

1

Will Hal Finney be successfully revived by 2100?

Dec 2, 3:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.96%chance

193221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

803

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23405

OptionProbability

Adam Back

Other

Multiple People

Hal Finney

Nick Szabo

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Paul Le Roux

Craig Wright

29

26

22

8

7

2

2

2

2

1

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