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Han Han News

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

4617992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

799

Will Levy Rozman have a publicized coaching session with Hans Neimann before 2026?

Jan 19, 7:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.64%chance

122500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2629

380

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026?

Mar 30, 10:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.55%chance

151883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

524

Will Hans Niemann become World Chess Champion within the next 25 years?

Jan 31, 4:54 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.42%chance

231875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

439

Will Hans Herman-Hoppe show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2025?

Oct 4, 10:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.6%chance

161438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

533

Detailed Status of Hans Neimann in Chess by mid 2028

Dec 8, 9:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20835

OptionProbability

Still playing and no longer suspected

Still playing - widely suspected of cheating

Not playing - Has quit pro chess without being banned

Banned for Cheating - physical implant

Banned for Cheating - non internal helpers

Still playing - revealed and proven to be honest in some way

Not playing - Confessed but without explanation

Banned for cheating - non-implant device

Other

67

15

12

1

1

1

1

1

1

Hans Neimann Stock (Permanent)

Nov 15, 5:49 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15441

OptionProbability

YES

NO

325

262

Will Magnus Carlsen play a classical game against Hans Niemann before 2030?

Aug 10, 5:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.74%chance

7300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will Hans Niemann be rated >= 2800 FIDE?

Aug 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

23.37%chance

5290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Jun 3, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

524

438

Will China nationalize at least 10000 non-Han from a single country through 2035

Aug 20, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.95%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

103

Will Hans Herman-Hoppe show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?

May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

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