Hande Erçel News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Chronic Back Pain

Mental illness

Fame

Radical Leftism

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Zizian Murder Cult member

Business

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Targeted hit/contract killing

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Personal conflict with CEO

Arson

Murder

Genocide

2008 bank bailouts

two financial crimes

Sexual assault

Rape

Election fraud

financial crimes veiled as altruism

ballot harvesting

Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

Racism against Asian people

Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

offering drugs to a minor

stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

Giving away free samples of meth at a school

Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

Committing war crime.

Intensive pig farming

Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

Firebombing a major city

Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

Farming octopuses for food

Whatever is going on at Boeing

Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

Octopi farming us for food

Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

Octopus sex trafficking.

Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

Selling orphans fed only pie meat

Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

Stealing a SpaceX Starship

Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

Carjacking an old lady

Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

Stealing the Declaration of Independence

Operating a child beauty pageant

Andrew Tate

Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

One hundred moving violations

Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

Touching minors/ being a pedophile

Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

Stealing Nicholas Cage

Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

The genocide in Gaza

Russia's genocide in Ukraine

Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

Slavery

Grooming kids

Being the leader of a crime syndicate

9/11

Stranding two astronauts in space

Disturbing the space-time continuum

Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

Sexual harassment

Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

Killing the United Healthcare CEO

Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

Sheltering enemies of the state

Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

Weaponizing autism

Having a podcast

Yelling racial slurs in public

Jaywalking

Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

Cheating on spouse

Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

Income taxes

Copyright infringement

Romeo and Juliet relationships

Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

Welfare fraud

Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

Grave robbery

Saying the N-word every day as a white person

Discrimination based on race

Discrimination based on sexual orientation

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

Racism against black people

Racism against white people

Sleep Token (Band)

not seeding your torrents

Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

twincest

drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

working as a prostitute

hiring a prostitute

hiring a prostitute, long term

Inventing Monero

Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

The most offensive Halloween costume ever

frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

Doing blackface

Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

the Asiana flight 214 prank

Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

Cloning yourself

Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

making mifeprestone available OTC

making adderall available OTC

Killing yourself

Cloning someone else

Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

Calling octopuses "octopi"

Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

Illegally registering octopuses to vote

Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

Conducting gain-of-function research

Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

Adding an option to a market right before it closes

Writing a "goto" statement when programming

Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

Selling dope disguised as a nun.

Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

Interrupting cows.

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

One moving violation.

Purchasing one whole chicken

Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Cattle rustling

Horse thievery

Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

Sumptuary law violations

Homeopathy

Price Gouging

Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

Failing to commit a financial crime

Stealing a car

Stealing from Elon Musk

Committing a financial crime against X (company)

Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

Carjacking Elon Musk

An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

Carjacking a dumb octopus

A financial crime committed by an old lady

Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

Raping an AI avatar in VR

Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

Bad bagels

Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

Still getting notifications for this market

Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

scaring the shit out of a magpie

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

Committing sewerslide

Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

Arby’s

Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

Founding Christianity

You, the reader

One hundred counts of littering

Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

BTE Ban evading

Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

Transing children

Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Premieres in 2027

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Peeves is a reoccurring character

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Hermione is white

mandrake root on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A house elf is shown on screen

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

It's woke

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

We get AGI before it premieres

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Premieres in 2026

Features an explicitly transgender character

Fred and George have the same actor

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Hermione is Indian

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Officials Say

Trump Wins

Court Orders

Found dead

Texas Fire

Civil war

Olympic Gold

Climate Change

Bird Flu

Supreme Court

Trade War

Former President

Southern Border

Talks Between

Officials Declare

On record

First Ever

Talks Begin

Trump Ordered

New report

Earthquake Kills

Ceasefire Agreement

Lawmakers Move

Take Home

Drone Strike

Inflation down

In Setback

Assassination Attempt

declares war

Artificial Intelligence

Officials Deny

Tension Builds

Republicans Lose

National Emergency

nuclear weapon

Death Toll

Most Ever

Trump guilty

at Odds

Third attempt

Second Term

Generation Alpha

European Union

Landmark Decision

Dalai Lama

Strikes continue

Feared dead following

Officials Insist

court allows

Border Crisis

A.I. Legislation

Impeachment Inquiry

Demands Justice

Takes Gold

With Biden

Tipping Point

Olympic Debut

Summer Olympic Games

Hoping To

Sudden Death

In Historic Decision

Musk donates

Cancer cure

Fake news

Keir Starmer

Vows to

AI Czar

threat to democracy

General Condemns

Officials Worry

Chemical weapon

Highest Ever

Swift Becomes

Joins NATO

Alleged genocide

Nuclear war

Biden Announces

Homelessness ban

market crashes

nuclear bomb

Kremlin Says

Haley announces

Tempers Flare

trump’s assassin

Double Knockout

Supreme Court, 9-0

Leaves NATO

Carter Dead

Ghost Trees

Trump Convicted

69 billion

Harris Wins

Revolutionary Song

Artificial General Intelligence

"French Fries"

Occult hand

Effective Altruism

Apocalypse imminent

Biden Wins

TikToker Found

Trump Dead

Florida Man

Holy hell

Putin Dead

Biden Dead

owo what's this

I Like Ike

Astral Codex Ten

Manifold Markets

Williamson Wins

Africa Toto

General Condoms

Dewey Defeats Truman

En passant forced

Titanic 2 Sinks

skibidi toilet

never gonna give you up

Rationalussy Cult

Under 65 yo

Straight

Under 60 yo

Has a STEM degree of any type

Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

Is an American citizen

If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

Speaks a foreign language

Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

Under 55 yo

Has been a CEO

Is married

Under 50 yo

Has children

Self described person of color

Has ethnic Asian heritage

Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

Software Engineering background

Was not an American citizen at birth

Went to a private high school

Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

CEO will take office after Q2 2027

Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

Has attended Davos

Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

Non-native English speaker

Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

Is an only child

Born in the USA

Has ethnic European heritage

Diversity Points Score: 1

Has ever been divorced

Has visited or lived in China

Has PhD

Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

Under 45 yo

Has written and published a book either academic or non

Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

Has submitted and received 2+ patents

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

Diversity Points Score: 0

Under 40 yo

Has Jewish heritage

Neither parent attended college

Was a college-level athlete

Has any public mention of playing pickleball

Has at least 3 children

Is publicly Christian

Diversity Points Score: 2

Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

Blue eyes

Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

Diversity Points Score: 3

Diversity Points Score: 4

If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

Tattoo

Has served in us govt

Has passed a bar exam

Female

Born in the northeast

Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

Raised in a single parent family

Left-handed

Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

Grew up in poverty

Catholic

Physics Background

Green eyes

Is Hispanic

Both parents had PhDs

LGBT*+

Has military experience

Has worked or attended school in Israel

Is Muslim

Unnatural hair colour

Has ethnic African heritage

Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

Has a physical disability

Has been to space

Has an ADOS background

Pronouns are not standard

Has a speech impediment

Trans

Is an AI

Team will be scoreless for a quarter

Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback

Winning team has more total yards

First play from scrimmage is a rush

Opening kickoff result is a touchback

Last play is 'victory formation'

Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration

Player crying during national anthem

Quarterback runs in for a touchdown

Announcer says "goat"

Player gets carted off the field

Current or former US President in attendance

Announcer says "tush push"

First score is a touchdown

Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal

Team that scores last wins the game

Score is tied again after 0-0

Broadcast uses video from pylon camera

Both teams score in 1st quarter

Failed 4th down attempt

Gatorade shower color is yellow/green

An administrative timeout is taken

Player goes into the blue tent

Winning team has more passing yards

Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown

Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made

Holding call in 4th quarter

Taylor Swift is at the game

Chains used to measure first down 1+ times

WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points

First turnover is an interception

Head coach throws a challenge flag

Tom Brady is at the game

Super Bowl is won by a bird team

First score is a field goal

Coin toss is 'heads'

Coin toss is 'tails'

National anthem is over 2 minutes

Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct

Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration

Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)

50+ yard field goal is made

Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half

Any player scores 2+ touchdowns

Winning margin is 10+ points

Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given

Kicker is iced

2 point conversion attempted

Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game

Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs

Any player scores 7+ points individually

Ruling on the field gets overturned by review

All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)

Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game

No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game

Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer

Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given

Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions

Tush Push touchdown is made

Injury timeout is taken

Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd

[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]

[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]

First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics

Any player has a 60+ yard reception

Both teams complete their first pass attempt

Special teams touchdown

Onside kick attempt

Player shown eating a snack on the sideline

Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even

Altercation occurs between a player and a coach

Trick play results in positive yardage

Both teams have a 4th quarter lead

50+ yard return

Kick is missed

Successful 2-point conversion

First drive of game is a '3 and out'

Team leading at halftime loses

Live animal enters the field of play

Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game

Player retires immediately after game

Backup QB gets put in the game

A player catches the ball with one hand

Player knocks non-player over on the sideline

No penalties in the 4th quarter

Any player successfully hurdles a defender

Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl

Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl

Unauthorized person gets on the field of play

Winning team has more turnovers

At least one team has 0 points at halftime

Announcer says “hawk-eye”

Team has 5+ sacks

Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl

[LX total score] > [LIX total score]

Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)

A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown

Announcer says "stud"

Team is a first time super bowl winner

Points scored in the first 90 seconds

A player's jersey gets torn

Unauthorized person touches midfield logo

Player gets ejected from the game

Score is tied at half-time

Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP

Team wins by exactly one point

QB catches a pass from any player

Kick is successfully blocked

There is a doink

No rushing touchdowns scored

Pick 6 occurs

Game goes to OT

Successful 'hail mary' pass is made

Final score is scorigami

A safety is scored

Any player to score an octopus

Super Bowl MVP not from winning team

Stadium blackout occurs

Will Have LEDs / lights

Will contain a circuit board

Will have readable word(s) on it

Will cost $40 or more

Will Have a physical toggle or switch (for power , settings, etc)

Will Cost $69 or more

Will cost $100 or more

Will have at least two buttons (of any type)

Will be announced by end of 2024

Weigh 200g or more

Will have a gyroscope or similar function via an accelerometer

Will Have a USB-A port

Could be snapped in half by human hands by an average person

Will use aluminum as a component

Weigh 50g or more

Will have a USB-C port

Weigh 500g or more

Overall color will be black

Will have a vibration / rumble motor

Will be announced before Jimmy Carter passes away

Releases for sale before Halloween 2024

Releases for sale before Thanksgiving 2024

Releases for sale before boxing day 2024

longer than 9 inches in any direction

Will cost $53 or more

Will cost $111 or more

Will come with a carrying case

Will fit in your pocket

Will announce a partnership with another company at the same time

Will have a battery

Will cost $140 or more

Will have an AUX output

Will make noise

Will have a screen

Will cost $200 or more

Will Weigh 2 lbs or more

Will be longer than 12 inches in any dimension

Will use bluetooth or wifi

Will be smash-specific

Has eye tracking

Has external battery

Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

Has built in speakers for audio

Will have a glass front

Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

Priced under $2,000

Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

Has "Air" in its name

Primarily made of aluminum

Has an external display (like eyesight)

Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

Priced under $1000

Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

Priced lower than $199

Priced lower than $299

A bio revolution of resurgence! The bean is back in everyone’s hands

A prized middle class item

Chemical vanillin for all (total extinction)

For the rich only

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (2022 value: 2.0m)

Office Clerks, General (2022 value: 2.5m)

Customer Service Representatives (2022 value: 2.9m)

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive (2022 value: 1.8m)

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (2022 value: 1.6m)

Retail Salespersons (2022 value: 3.6m)

Fast Food and Counter Workers (2022 value: 3.3m)

Cashiers (2022 value: 3.3m)

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (2022 value: 2.9m)

Stockers and Order Fillers (2022 value: 2.8m)

Waiters and Waitresses (2022 value: 2.1m)

Software Developers (2022 value: 1.5m)

Home Health and Personal Care Aides (2022 value: 3.5m)

General and Operations Managers (2022 value: 3.4m)

Registered Nurses (2022 value: 3.1m)

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (2022 value: 2.1m)

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (2022 value: 1.5m)

I get my car a very weird paint job which would make it unsellable

Will go to edge Esmeralda (in any capacity, at least one event)

Will get cavity preventing bacteria

Japan JET Reunion 2025

I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places

Pickleball tournament

I use computer vision to run diy studies of politeness behavior, grouped by car brand etc

I start an AI beauty/art twitter and get 1k followers

I document a method of self modifying an SLR by blackening all surfaces

Publish and finish personal)group predictions tracking software

AI phrenology - publish a doc on a study of AI image generation models differential portrayals of previously very hard to measure aspects of the human condition such as facial shape linkages to personality

Build a personal pickleball court and attract community members to play there

Surreptitiously construct additional pickleball courts at Foster City

Publish an edited dashcam video of all the things I've filmed with the Tesla ssd

Tool to view twitter as someone else. Given that follows are public this should be easy

Create a nice Tesla models y fold over screen cover with cutouts for vital areas only. Makes night driving much easier. No need for a distracting map view if you're not turning for 200 miles

I off road hike far into iron point outside Golconda, NV

I set a personal daily mileage record

Make balatro mod which shows currently selected hand score if played (ie everyone's need for this otherwise great game)

Get gphotos to fix any of their innumerable UI bugs by complaining

Have a sci-fi story published online somewhere

Make neighborhood intro video with stories etc

Will go to a natal conference again

Local Free library and bulletin board at my place

Overland trek to CITY in Nevada, an off-limits experimental art city which has been in progress for over 50 years

Go to Mexico to see Trevor Bauer play

Go see the Starship 4 launch in Texas in 2024

Release "Reading the mind in the AI generated images"

Get over 1k users for my browser extension

Ship something involving image => description => more images to users

I go to West Africa and go to concerts, visit Nollywood etc

I write a science fiction novel about aliens who experiment with forced evolution