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Prediction markets for Hanson

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

275530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

619

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?

Mar 27, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.36%chance

185494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5325

722

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2025?

Feb 5, 12:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.26%chance

185206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

258

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3780

1858

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

17.8%chance

163704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2149

465

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.41%chance

83311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2933

341

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.02%chance

143293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

516

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.32%chance

343263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

779

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

32.46%chance

22783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

823

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

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