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Prediction markets for Hanson

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3780

1858

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

20.26%chance

204182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1984

504

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.4%chance

144009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.77%chance

83404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4040

248

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.32%chance

343263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

779

Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026?

May 16, 6:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.32%chance

92018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2351

425

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

40%chance

241197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

947

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

Assuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?

Jan 4, 7:43 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM

15249

OptionProbability

Prediction markets

Extra-terrestrial civilizations (Grabby aliens, Great Filter...)

Signalling

Ems

Criminal law vouching

Other

Tax Career Agents

Healthcare

Reversible agents

Fertility

45

13

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

3

Will Pauline Hanson run for the house (not senate) in the 2028 Australian election?

May 25, 1:18 PMJul 1, 12:59 AM

46.62%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

935

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