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Prediction markets for Harlan

Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033?

Feb 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76%chance

371383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

889

In what year will human-level AI first exist?

Apr 19, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.23%chance

181207

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1159

982

By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?

Sep 9, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.3%chance

7810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1794

557

If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be elected for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Aug 30, 8:48 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.71%chance

8655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

65

Will less than 30% of US adults be obese by EOY 2030?

Oct 26, 4:07 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.16%chance

15547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

864

If a Republican is elected POTUS in 2024, will the US send troops into Mexico before EOY 2028?

Aug 30, 8:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.42%chance

12386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

934

Will viral gain-of-function research be significantly more restricted in the US on 01/01/2030?

Apr 27, 6:39 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

68.98%chance

10372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

134

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Conditional on no AGI, will a human brain be uploaded before 2053?

Feb 6, 10:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

38.01%chance

7325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

60

Will Andrew Yang have been POTUS or had a position in the Cabinet before 2035?

Feb 9, 4:22 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

21.63%chance

8257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

172

Will I file taxes in the year 2065, if I'm alive then?

Dec 30, 6:13 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

53.34%chance

5192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

71

67

If the IRS still exists in 2065, will my marginal tax rate be lower for 2064 than for 2024?

Dec 30, 6:27 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

80%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

25

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