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Prediction markets for Hasse

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.04%chance

201530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

1937

Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 23, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.74%chance

121155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

939

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google?

Aug 9, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8833

OptionProbability

None of these options

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

51

50

40

10

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.07%chance

7730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

654

Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

16487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

331

1

Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?

Jun 8, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

8212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?

Sep 1, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.53%chance

9183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

1

When will Demis Hassabis no longer have a human Executive Assistant?

Apr 3, 9:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

437

OptionProbability

2034-2035

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2035-2036

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

34

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 10, 10:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.19%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Thunderdome: Hassan Nasrallah vs Bibi Netanyahu

Nov 9, 1:29 AMDec 1, 4:00 AM

890

Is Demis Hassabis the most universally loved AI researcher on the planet?

Nov 27, 10:19 PM

70

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