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Prediction markets for Hayden

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.69%chance

11510080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2758

1844

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

773829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

959

Is there a major headline discovery that still remains hidden in the world's oceans?

Apr 7, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.78%chance

813413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2609

1178

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

833042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

1300

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

75.61%chance

631963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6946

6031

Will at least 1% of all A/C units worldwide be replaced with energyless cooling alternatives by 2040?

Jul 30, 10:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.05%chance

531624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

948

How many people worldwide will be living primarily underground in 2040?

Aug 1, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.93%chance

241620

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1018

943

C-3PO by 2030?

Apr 9, 11:12 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

42.49%chance

311581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

975

956

Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?

Apr 7, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.16%chance

301266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

1049

Will "avatarism" become a significantly notable movement by 2030?

Jun 6, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.27%chance

31950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

902

Which former Forbes 30 Under 30 winners be convicted of a crime by January 1, 2027?

Oct 28, 10:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2348

OptionProbability

Ham Serunjogi (Finance, 2023)

Hayden Adams (Finance, 2023)

Reid Waldman (Healthcare, 2024)

Carter Frazee (Finance, 2024)

Marc Baghadjian, Nikolas Ioannou (Finance, 2024)

Dina Radenkovic (Healthcare, 2023)

5

5

5

5

5

5

Will the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?

Apr 7, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.55%chance

16186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

890

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