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Prediction markets for He

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.42%chance

264484823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10407

7511

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.06%chance

230167258

OptionProbability

YES

NO

5059

4362

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022

Dec 30, 6:38 AMDec 29, 11:00 PM

54.06%chance

13269944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2534

1007

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

1157

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.58%chance

11730224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10621

5761

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.33%chance

11317915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

8011

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.65%chance

4911779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44446

36275

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Jul 11, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.01%chance

488728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3302

2266

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11755

8505

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

Will Elon Musk be buried on or have his ashes scattered on Mars when he dies?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.07%chance

40849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

1968

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