OptionProbability
#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating
#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us
#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels
#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down
#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world
#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion
#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work
#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters
#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after
#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models
#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it
#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk
#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less
#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite
#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI
#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do
#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere
#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion
#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures
#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe
#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers
#176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models
#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment
#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives
#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child
#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable
#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious
#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption
#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news
#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe
#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals
#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't
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