Hencely News

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4569704

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

11937466

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.44%chance

2813335

OptionVotes

YES

21502

5811

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Apr 24, 9:14 PMApr 24, 10:59 PM

763261

OptionProbability

An AI injuring or killing someone by accident

AIs taking jobs

An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive

Something porn-related

AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities

An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to

An AI not being sufficiently woke

An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to

An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")

An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent

An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips

An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed

An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals

An AI that makes scientific advancements

An AI that is superintelligent and hence is uncontrollable, renders all jobs obsolete, and likely sees humans as inferior

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

84.78%chance

212098

OptionVotes

YES

1770

759

What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?

May 14, 12:17 PMJul 21, 9:59 PM

251944

OptionProbability

Smaller model size (hence, architecture/algorithm improvements)

More/better hardware allocated

Something related to low-level computation efficiency (for example, optimized frameworks)

Other

Better coarser-grained tokenizer

When will AGI arrive

Nov 27, 1:39 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

271701

OptionProbability

2020s

2030s

2040s

After 2050

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen issued a federal pardon before the end of day on December 31, 2026

Feb 4, 6:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.19%chance

101331

OptionVotes

YES

2121

472

Will Malcom and Simone Collins have 7 children by 2034?

May 26, 6:35 PMJun 3, 6:59 AM

43.23%chance

12644

OptionVotes

YES

1146

873

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Nov 10, 8:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.32%chance

16381

OptionVotes

YES

1020

874

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

YES

1459

987

Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040

May 16, 12:04 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

42.71%chance

20308

OptionVotes

YES

1029

953

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Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?

When will AGI arrive

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen issued a federal pardon before the end of day on December 31, 2026

Will Malcom and Simone Collins have 7 children by 2034?

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040

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