Hencely News

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

12543842

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Dec 2, 4:27 AMJan 2, 5:04 AM

86.68%chance

649599

OptionVotes

YES

2551

392

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Apr 24, 9:14 PMApr 24, 10:59 PM

773262

OptionProbability

An AI injuring or killing someone by accident

AIs taking jobs

An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive

Something porn-related

AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities

An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to

An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to

An AI not being sufficiently woke

An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")

An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent

An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips

An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed

An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals

An AI that makes scientific advancements

An AI that is superintelligent and hence is uncontrollable, renders all jobs obsolete, and likely sees humans as inferior

Will Malcom and Simone Collins have 7 children by 2034?

May 26, 6:35 PMJun 3, 6:59 AM

84.35%chance

152854

OptionVotes

YES

2322

431

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

85.28%chance

222148

OptionVotes

YES

1820

750

What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?

May 14, 12:17 PMJul 21, 9:59 PM

252144

OptionProbability

Smaller model size (hence, architecture/algorithm improvements)

More/better hardware allocated

Something related to low-level computation efficiency (for example, optimized frameworks)

Other

Better coarser-grained tokenizer

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen issued a federal pardon before the end of day on December 31, 2026

Feb 4, 6:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.13%chance

111684

OptionVotes

YES

2368

422

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

YES

1295

1115

Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040

May 16, 12:04 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.82%chance

21408

OptionVotes

YES

1100

1011

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Nov 10, 8:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.32%chance

16381

OptionVotes

YES

1020

874

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

1241

805

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Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Will Malcom and Simone Collins have 7 children by 2034?

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen issued a federal pardon before the end of day on December 31, 2026

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

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