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Prediction markets for Holden

Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026?

Nov 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2915855

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

David Reich

Jensen Huang

Dylan Patel (as guest)

Sarah Paine

Nicholas Carlini

Dwarkesh Patel (see note)

Dean Ball

Demis Hassabis

Yann LeCun

Tyler Cowen

Dean Spears

Alec Radford

Amanda Askell

Jack Clark

Joscha Bach

Sundar Pichai

Gary Marcus

Ian Morris

Daniel Kokotajlo

Satya Nadella

Joe Henrich

Scott Alexander

Michael Dell

Noam Brown

Paul J Werbos

Holden Karnofsky

Eliezer Yudkowsky

roon

Mira Murati

Hans Moravec

Zvi Mowshowitz

Ilya Sutskever

François Chollet

Michael Levin

Helen Toner

Ajeya Cotra

Doris Taylor

Carl Shulman

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Janus @repligate

Nick Bostrom

Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

Andrej Karpathy

Matt Levine

George Hotz

Bill Gates

Joe Carlsmith

Tanner Greer

Tamay Besiroglu

Mustafa Suleyman

Nate Soares

Mark Zuckerberg

Dan Hendrycks

Robert Caro

Barack Obama

Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Bill Clinton

100

100

100

100

99

59

50

34

32

30

29

28

26

25

25

24

23

23

22

21

20

19

19

18

18

18

18

17

16

16

16

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

14

14

14

14

14

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

10

9

8

7

6

6

Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?

Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM

42.82%chance

2713342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

865

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Oct 29, 3:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

308409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7327

410

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.46%chance

8620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

723

137

Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.53%chance

14449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

785

Bryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?

Jul 21, 8:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.61%chance

14232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

144

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