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Prediction markets for Holden

Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026?

Nov 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121091

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

David Reich

Jensen Huang

Dylan Patel (as guest)

Ajeya Cotra

Dwarkesh Patel (see note)

Nicholas Carlini

Dean Spears

Dean Ball

Alec Radford

Jack Clark

Gary Marcus

Joscha Bach

Holden Karnofsky

Yann LeCun

Sundar Pichai

Satya Nadella

Sarah Paine

Demis Hassabis

Amanda Askell

Tyler Cowen

Daniel Kokotajlo

Sam Altman

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Ilya Sutskever

Ian Morris

Jeff Bezos

Michael Dell

Scott Alexander

Joe Henrich

Nick Bostrom

roon

Noam Brown

Hans Moravec

Paul J Werbos

Nate Soares

Mark Zuckerberg

Matt Levine

Janus @repligate

Zvi Mowshowitz

François Chollet

Michael Levin

Helen Toner

Joe Carlsmith

Tamay Besiroglu

Mira Murati

Doris Taylor

Carl Shulman

Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

Mustafa Suleyman

Tanner Greer

Dan Hendrycks

Robert Caro

Andrej Karpathy

George Hotz

Barack Obama

Bill Gates

Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

Bill Clinton

100

100

100

100

99

41

39

38

33

28

27

27

26

26

25

25

25

24

24

23

23

23

22

22

22

22

20

20

20

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

16

16

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

10

9

9

9

8

5

4

4

Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?

Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM

74.13%chance

3114284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1693

591

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Oct 29, 3:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

308409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7327

410

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.46%chance

8620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

723

137

Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.19%chance

14499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

763

Bryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?

Jul 21, 8:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.61%chance

14232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

144

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