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Prediction markets for Holden

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026?

Nov 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2612113

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Jensen Huang

Dylan Patel (as guest)

Dwarkesh Patel (see note)

Nicholas Carlini

Dean Ball

Demis Hassabis

Alec Radford

Yann LeCun

Tyler Cowen

Dean Spears

Jack Clark

Amanda Askell

Sarah Paine

François Chollet

Joscha Bach

Tamay Besiroglu

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ian Morris

Sundar Pichai

Satya Nadella

Michael Dell

roon

Mira Murati

Paul J Werbos

Holden Karnofsky

Gary Marcus

Matt Levine

George Hotz

Ajeya Cotra

Joe Carlsmith

Noam Brown

Hans Moravec

Nate Soares

Doris Taylor

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Ilya Sutskever

Scott Alexander

Carl Shulman

Joe Henrich

Zvi Mowshowitz

Michael Levin

Helen Toner

Bill Gates

Mustafa Suleyman

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Nick Bostrom

Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

Andrej Karpathy

Janus @repligate

Tanner Greer

Mark Zuckerberg

Dan Hendrycks

David Reich

Barack Obama

Robert Caro

Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Bill Clinton

100

100

100

50

50

41

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

29

26

26

25

25

24

23

23

22

22

22

20

20

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

17

17

16

15

15

15

15

15

14

14

14

14

13

13

13

13

13

12

9

8

8

7

6

6

Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?

Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM

72.28%chance

2411553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1615

619

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Oct 29, 3:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

308409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7327

410

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.46%chance

8620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

723

137

Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.53%chance

14449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

785

Bryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?

Jul 21, 8:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.61%chance

14232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

144

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