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Prediction markets for Homie

Will the cop who shot Nahel M. be found guilty of homicide?

Jun 29, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.38%chance

442603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

893

Who wins the Avi Vs. Matthew (Bentham's Bulldog) debate on fine tuning?

May 30, 6:03 PMMar 31, 6:00 PM

101774

OptionProbability

Avi

Matthew

70

30

Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030?

Sep 29, 5:25 PMApr 1, 4:59 AM

58.36%chance

15915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

801

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

50.84%chance

20569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

803

Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2025?

Sep 29, 5:23 PMJun 1, 4:59 AM

79.82%chance

9379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

358

85

Another Manifold user charged with homicide before 2027?

Jun 26, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.19%chance

7270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

44

Will Bryan Kohberger be found guilty of the quadruple homicide in Moscow Idaho

Apr 24, 11:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.57%chance

4195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

357

116

Will any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?

Jan 24, 8:54 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

45.85%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.95%chance

553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

127

What will the homicide rate be in Mexico for 2024?

Apr 3, 5:28 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

340

OptionProbability

29-30

28-29

25-26

26-27

27-28

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

24-25

15-16

16-17

17-18

18-19

19-20

30-31

31-32

32-33

33-34

34-35

35-36

36-37

37-38

38-39

39-40

40-41

41-42

42-43

43-44

44-45

45-46

46-47

47-48

48-49

49-50

50-51

26

19

8

8

8

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

[Objective/sentiment market hybrid] 2040 scientific consensus will be that hominins regularly used hand tools?

Jul 9, 2:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.91%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

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