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Prediction markets for Hones

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Oct 13, 3:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.39%chance

468096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

394

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.25%chance

211799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

428

Will "I ate bear fat with honey and salt flakes, to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.94%chance

3755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

932

By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?

Oct 12, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.75%chance

15693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

937

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Oct 13, 3:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.22%chance

14465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

939

By 2027 will there be a well-accepted training procedure(s) for making AI honest?

Oct 12, 4:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.39%chance

19451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

932

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.51%chance

15345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

913

Will I think OpenAI was being honest about their structure in 2025?

Jun 20, 5:17 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

74.92%chance

7306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will "Honey, I shrunk the brain" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will there be a well accepted formal definition for honesty in AI by 2027?

Oct 4, 7:02 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.86%chance

10210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

107

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

66

Will "The Darwinian Honeymoon - Why I am not as imp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 11, 4:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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