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Prediction markets for Hones

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Oct 13, 3:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.39%chance

468096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

394

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.39%chance

201749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1371

465

Honey

Jul 14, 10:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3797

OptionProbability

Up

Down

66

34

Will "I ate bear fat with honey and salt flakes, to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.94%chance

3755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

932

By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?

Oct 12, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27%chance

14643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

955

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Oct 13, 3:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.22%chance

14465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

939

By 2027 will there be a well-accepted training procedure(s) for making AI honest?

Oct 12, 4:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.39%chance

19451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

932

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.51%chance

15345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

913

Sean catches a disease on his honeymoon to Vietnam

Jan 23, 5:01 PMMay 29, 4:00 PM

6266

OptionProbability

No

Yes

71

29

Will "Honey, I shrunk the brain" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will the Honey add on still be available at the end of 2026?

Dec 23, 5:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

85.71%chance

9171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

41

Will the Canadian government put someone on trial for killing Barry and Honey Sherman before 2030? (see desc.)

Feb 25, 7:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

116

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