OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
Andrew Tate
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Cersei Lannister
Dylan Klebold
Trump's attempted assassin
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Josh Hawley
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Roko
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Sima Zhong
LEROY JENKINS
CHELSEA VOSS
Laria Reynolds
Ornlu the Wolf
Jozef Tiso
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
A cockroach
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
Niko Bellic
Hunter Biden's laptop
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Commodus
Paul Von Hindenburg
Tito
Thomas Midgley Jr.
an asi agent from openai
Vriska Serket
Yuan Shu
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Mehmed V
Black Hat (XKCD)
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
King George III of England
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
Klaus Schwab
Karl Marx
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
A literal ham sandwich
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Rochelle Shen
JD Vance
Emperor Ling of Han
Ada Nguyen
Sean Hannity
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Salvador Allende
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
Eren Yeager
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Rorschach
Wario
goth600
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Lex Luthor
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
Neville Chamberlain
Bad Bunny
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Stan Smith
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Santa Claus
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Justin Trudeau
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
@strutheo :)
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
97
96
94
94
92
92
92
91
91
90
88
88
87
86
85
84
84
82
81
76
74
74
73
72
71
69
69
68
67
66
66
65
63
61
60
59
58
58
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
46
45
45
45
44
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
42
42
41
41
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
39
39
39
39
38
38
37
37
37
37
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
32
32
32
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Bake it with your best friend.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Improve the bread
Bake for 15 more minutes
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Autolyse 20 minutes
Make the bread taste good
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Do a second rise
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Watch the video
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Make banana bread
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Add garlic
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Increase water by 50 g
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Brush on an egg wash
Make the bread great again
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
it needs more salt
Bake one more minute
Strawberry jelly filling
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Bake vegimite into it.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Half yeast
Replace salt with sugar
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Quadruple salt
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Bake vodka into it
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Add a pinch of sugar
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
87
86
85
85
82
79
78
78
78
76
76
76
73
73
71
69
69
69
65
64
63
62
62
60
58
58
57
56
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
48
47
47
45
45
44
43
43
43
42
41
40
40
40
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
27
26
26
26
26
26
24
24
24
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
15
15
14
14
13
13
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elephant
Other
Orangutan
Great Blue Whale
Honey Badger
Sperm whale
Orca
Bottlenose Dolphin
Gorilla
Dragon
Chimpanzees
Dog
Octopus
Bonobo
Raven
White, intelligent rat
Kea
Emperor Penguin
Seal
Proboscis Monkey
Panda
Hamsters
Cat (cute housecat)
Cockatoo
Shark
Otter
Ant
Rhinoceros
A kitten is a juvenile cat
65
6
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
California is wildly overrated.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
18
18
11
8
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity
DAN DA DAN Season 2
My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season
Other
Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus
The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, Really Love You 2nd Season
Rent-A-Girlfriend 4th Season
Honey Lemon Soda
My Happy Marriage Season 2
37
33
13
8
5
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Elle King
Zach King
Dixie D'Amelio
Jools Lebron
Lil Nas X
Emma Chamberlain
Justine Bateman
Noah Cyrus
Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"
Raven Simone
Denise Richards
Camille Grammar
Scheana Shay
Charlie Sheen
Jinx Monsoon
Walton Goggins
Mike White
Sarah Silverman
Beanie Feldstein
Paris Hilton
Nicole Richie
Dita Von Teese
Kelly Ripa
Sutton Stracke
Jennifer Tilly
Jessica Gunning
Cris Judd
Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)
Adam Lambert
Parvati Shallow
Joey Graziadei
Prince Harry
Daniel Stern
Owen Wilson
Luke Wilson
Mira Sorvino
Sharon Stone
Billy Bob Thornton
James Woods
Greg Kinnear
Geena Davis
Danielle Brooks
Tom Sandoval
Luann de Lesseps
Meg Tilly
Linda Evangelista
Marc Maron
Jason Bateman
Tina Fey
James Charles
Todd Chrisley
Julie Chrisley
Drew Barrymore
Katy Perry
Savannah Chrisley
Jeanette McCurdy
Meghan Markle
Lynne Spears
Jussie Smollett
Andrea Martin
Catherine O'Hara
Bette Midler
Adam DeVine
Victoria Beckham
Pitbull
Ronan Farrow
Soon-Yi Previn
Mel Gibson
Jodie Foster
Steve Carell
Dolly Parton
Andy Cohen
Christina Hendricks
Bowen Yang
Jean Smart
David Beckham
Drake Bell
Suze Orman
Woody Harrelson
Lady Gaga
Nancy Mace
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Noah Schnapp
Ann Coulter
Tiffany Trump
Michael Rapaport
Monica Lewinsky
Gypsy-Rose Blanchard
Mia Farrow
Kevin Spacey
Ariana Grande
Ted Cruz
Jeanine Pirro
Jesse Watters
Richard Gere
Kanye West
RuPaul
Jon Lovett
Eric Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Cole Escola
Donald Trump
Anthony Weiner
Hasan Piker
Elon Musk
Harry Sisson
Rachel Maddow
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
---
James Carville
Ivanka Trump
Roger Stone
JD Vance
Donna Brazile
Prince William
Hillary Clinton
Woody Allen
Roseanne Barr
George Santos
Joe Biden
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
41
41
41
38
37
37
34
34
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
26
22
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
17
17
17
16
16
14
10
6
OptionProbability
Doing at least 30 minute exercise daily is important
Honey as antimicrobial
Flossing is very important for average person
Typical blue light from phones before sleep worsens sleep quality noticeably
Reduced salt intake increases cardiac health for people without a preexisting condition
Listen to music to help with stress
Maintaining one correct posture when sitting is important
89
75
55
55
55
35
23
OptionProbability
Up
Down
66
34
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1545
932
OptionVotes
NO
YES
245
41
OptionVotes
YES
NO
145
69
OptionVotes
YES
NO
118
116

