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Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

123741585

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

60

22

14

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.76%chance

671585055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16491

8258

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

10.74%chance

361294254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2469

674

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

156234949

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

48.02%chance

211146579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

962

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

40.06%chance

214111875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Jun 12, 12:29 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

10%chance

4119594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3001

333

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.99%chance

6814585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8681

3642

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.17%chance

158716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18386

5439

Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:44 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

63.64%chance

417749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

756

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

53.96%chance

151698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10382

9514

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

50.37%chance

17245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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