Israël News

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

99138212

OptionProbability

Other

Jan - Jun 2026

Jul - Dec 2026

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.76%chance

349101885

OptionVotes

YES

2571

944

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31374211

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

1000-1500

5000+

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Feb 28, 7:37 AMMay 31, 3:59 AM

28471674

OptionProbability

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days

100

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

60.87%chance

6828594

OptionVotes

YES

1436

344

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.75%chance

11415027

OptionVotes

YES

6505

428

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.23%chance

3411032

OptionVotes

YES

7208

4319

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

21.67%chance

5410555

OptionVotes

YES

1684

704

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.07%chance

294356

OptionVotes

YES

5575

4732

Will as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027?

May 23, 8:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41%chance

303251

OptionVotes

YES

1200

834

Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?

Mar 20, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:04 AM

26.9%chance

123047

OptionVotes

YES

602

443

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

32.69%chance

3470

OptionVotes

YES

2470

1679

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When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Will as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027?

Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

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