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Prediction markets for Jain

Human whole brain emulation before 2100?

Jun 20, 7:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.51%chance

192010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1994

335

Will Manifold change the Twitter icon on profiles before 2026?

Feb 2, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.89%chance

81853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2722

367

Will one of the next 10 popes be black?

Mar 7, 5:20 PMApr 1, 9:59 PM

76.81%chance

251414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1837

498

Will a (new) technocratic government emerge by 2050?

Jul 2, 1:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.78%chance

241037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

737

Will West Papua be independent by 2030?

May 30, 10:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.03%chance

9615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

624

Will Mustafa ever meet someone at his ACX meetups?

Oct 15, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.08%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

832

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

963

Will I regret not having dropped out of high school?

Mar 24, 7:52 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

33%chance

4425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will the Sentinelese language be described before 2035?

Jan 31, 10:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.03%chance

20331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

940

Will Martinique gain independence before 2030?

Jul 8, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.07%chance

6301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

852

Will there be a genetic engineering method capable of changing an adult's chromosomal sex by 2100?

Jul 11, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.54%chance

12300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

915

Will Tuvalu still be habitable by 2080?

May 6, 10:05 PMMay 9, 9:59 PM

54.01%chance

10228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

977

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