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Prediction markets for Jan

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 6, 3:59 AM

99%chance

129427948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161904

87627

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.13%chance

127235268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

961

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

58154931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117779

4179

Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?

Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.79%chance

10433498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1594

1007

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

3230357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

19.46%chance

10214663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

1134

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?

Feb 4, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.78%chance

358720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

754

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

79.08%chance

756743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2027

1026

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?

Mar 17, 12:34 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

84.37%chance

91707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2323

430

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

17.17%chance

151215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3494

2367

Who will have the most revenue in the USA before Jan 1st 2030

Sep 23, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71182

OptionProbability

Uber

Tesla Cybercab

Waymo

Lyft

Other

57

22

8

6

6

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