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Prediction markets for Jan

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

5.91%chance

126234905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4112

889

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

57154918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117972

4177

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

64.51%chance

8579053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

68315

36630

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

71.27%chance

9439768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2503

1933

Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?

Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.79%chance

10433498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1594

1007

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

3230357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

18.75%chance

10014511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1642

1121

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

75.74%chance

715706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1788

1096

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?

Feb 4, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.38%chance

295247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

744

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

17.17%chance

151215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3494

2367

Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?

Mar 17, 12:34 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

59.81%chance

3220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

820

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