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Prediction markets for Jan Leike

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

287407

OptionProbability

Other

Ben Goertzel

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Paul Christiano

John Wentworth

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Janus

Alex Turner

Evan Hubinger

davidad

Buck Shlegeris

Vanessa Kosoy

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Yann LeCun

60

5

5

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years?

Jul 6, 5:20 AMJul 8, 3:59 AM

1.03%chance

236654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3801

754

Will Jan Leike be charged with violating his NDA for whistleblowing in the next 2 years?

May 15, 3:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.53%chance

242516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2905

765

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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