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Prediction markets for Javi Martínez

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

Will the USD stop being the world's reserve currency by 2030?

Mar 30, 12:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.65%chance

603545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

963

Will the alleged 2022/11/11 FTX hack turn out to be an inside job?

Nov 12, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.47%chance

233289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

491

Efficient full homomorphic encryption for frontier model training by 2030?

Dec 19, 1:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.88%chance

192878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

894

Is it (mostly) the phones?

Mar 10, 5:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.29%chance

862720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2889

1672

Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?

Sep 21, 12:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.54%chance

292097

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1625

591

Will a cat born before 2020 live to be ≥150 years old?

Aug 20, 3:03 PMAug 21, 9:59 PM

18.83%chance

241121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

776

Can fungi feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 11:56 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

12898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

941

Can plants feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.36%chance

20792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

974

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Will Verda make better needles for the 2028 election?

Nov 6, 8:35 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

47.45%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

950

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