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Top stories

World’s Oldest Person Ethel Caterham Turns 116 in Quiet Surrey Celebration

World’s Oldest Person Ethel Caterham Turns 116 in Quiet Surrey Celebration

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Jeanne Calment

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

When will the next person celebrate 120s birthday?

Mar 4, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

395294

OptionProbability

In 2050 or earlier

In 2045 or earlier

In 2040 or earlier

In 2036 or earlier

In 2035 or earlier

In 2034 or earlier

In 2033 or earlier

In 2032 or earlier

In 2031 or earlier

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2027

In 2028 or earlier

86

74

73

71

64

52

47

35

20

13

9

0

0

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.27%chance

162821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5020

2151

By the end of 2043, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?

Sep 25, 3:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.41%chance

272233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

977

Will anyone beat Jeanne Calment's record of 122 years, 164 days by the beginning of 2040?

Aug 29, 8:46 PMSep 6, 6:59 AM

47.48%chance

331639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

973

Is Jeanne Calment's longevity record of 122 years and 164 days accurate?

Dec 16, 5:41 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.81%chance

311470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

867

When will somebody reach the age of 120 again?

Aug 27, 2:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

21698

OptionProbability

Not before 2036

2032-2035

2029-2030

2030-2032

2027-2028

47

21

14

13

4

Will anyone other than Jeanne Calment reach 120 years of age before 2030?

Oct 20, 11:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.95%chance

13628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

461

60

By the end of 2053, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?

Sep 28, 6:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.07%chance

10216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

149

By the end of 2063, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?

Sep 28, 6:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.46%chance

9142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

239

106

Will Jeanne Calment's longevity record be broken one day before 2040?

Aug 15, 7:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

66.64%chance

483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

50

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