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BLACKPINK Reunites for 'DEADLINE' Tour, Releases 'JUMP' Directed by Dave Meyers, Tops 'Show Champion,' Performs 'APT.' in Toronto

BLACKPINK Reunites for 'DEADLINE' Tour, Releases 'JUMP' Directed by Dave Meyers, Tops 'Show Champion,' Performs 'APT.' in Toronto

9

10 days ago

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.47%chance

15471093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

976

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Dec 15, 5:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.67%chance

673922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

841

Who will succeed John Swinney as First Minister of Scotland?

May 18, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113268

OptionProbability

Anas Sarwar

Kate Forbes

Other

Mairi McAllan

Angus Robertson

Jenny Gilruth

Neil Gray

Douglas Ross

Alex Cole-Hamilton

45

30

11

4

2

2

2

2

2

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.81%chance

152751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

793

Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.47%chance

102221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

927

Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?

Jan 10, 5:54 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM

23.86%chance

151806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

526

Who will succeed Jagmeet Singh as the next leader of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP)?

Nov 3, 1:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

8720

OptionProbability

Valérie Plante

Avi Lewis

Leah Gazan

Heather McPherson

Nathan Cullen

Other

Don Davies

Jenny Kwan

Matthew Green

Charlie Angus

Alexandre Boulerice

Wab Kinew

Ruth Ellen Brosseau

Rachel Notley

Niki Ashton

Peter Julian

John Horgan

13

11

10

9

8

8

7

7

6

5

5

3

3

2

0

0

0

I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? [Resolves to superintelligence]

Nov 27, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.83%chance

12502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

957

Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?

Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM

21.05%chance

11351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

915

Were Barack Obama and Jennifer Aniston romantically involved sometime between 2017-2024?

Jan 29, 6:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.91%chance

11335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

43

Will Jenny Kaplan (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 21, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.32%chance

3121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

56

Who in the Forbes 30 Under 30 2025 list will be charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Dec 14, 6:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

119

OptionProbability

Oban MacTavish

Molly Mielke

Maya Kuppermann

Demi Guo

Anirudh Joshi

Rob Baldoni

Kathryn Newton

Collins Obinna Chibueze ("Shaboozey")

Peggy Wang

Gökçe Güven

Jenny Lei

Sonia Yang

Daniel Marin

Ben Nowack

Zander Isaacson

Brian Waddick

Jordan Taylor

Jayson Tatum

Jared Quincy Davis

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

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