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Prediction markets for Jeremiah
Will Gene McCarthy's DNA analysis of humans as bonobo/pig hybrids be confirmed by 2030?
Sep 7, 10:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
7.36%chance
4810748
OptionVotes
3547
282
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
30.73%chance
764207
OptionVotes
1281
1116
If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
Sep 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
141822
OptionProbability
31
31
10
10
5
4
4
3
3
Will a new web browser rendering engine reach over 2% market share by 2035?
Sep 26, 3:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
60%chance
181008
OptionVotes
1306
704
Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court?
Aug 10, 10:18 AMAug 17, 3:59 AM
93.3%chance
24938
OptionVotes
435
15
Was the banana approach in the Eon fly simulation video primarily connectome-selected?
Mar 8, 9:11 PMDec 31, 10:07 PM
74.32%chance
6194
OptionVotes
170
59
OptionProbability
178
78
Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030?
Dec 22, 5:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
23.56%chance
8150
OptionVotes
209
119
Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?
May 25, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.5%chance
888
OptionVotes
115
104
OptionProbability
53
18
17
13
OptionVotes
120
83
Will Neuralink achieve "combined I/O Bit rate > 1Mbs" by 2030?
Dec 14, 5:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
48.04%chance
14
OptionVotes
104
96