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Prediction markets for Jiang

Will perpetual markets become a permanent feature of Manifold?

Aug 10, 3:16 PMAug 10, 3:32 AM

81.21%chance

211898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2079

481

Will Evie complete her degree?

Apr 3, 9:56 PMAug 3, 9:55 PM

26.36%chance

131476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Which of these goals will I achieve in 2027?

Mar 11, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10408

OptionProbability

USAPHO Qualifier

USAMO Honorable Mention

USAMO Bronze Medal

MOP

USAMO Silver Medal

None of these achievements

USAMO Gold Medal

54

34

34

25

24

15

13

Will I be glad I started tweeting? (3-month self-experiment)

May 22, 4:30 AMJan 1, 5:29 AM

54.75%chance

10399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?

May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6247

OptionProbability

Applied Ethics

Decision Theory

Formal Epistemology

Metaethics

Philosophy of Mind

Philosophy of AI

Logic

Political Philosophy

Philosophy of Science

Philosophy of Language

Ancient Philosophy

Continental Philosophy

Metaphysics

History of Philosophy (non-ancient)

80

76

68

50

50

50

45

41

34

34

24

24

0

0

Will I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?

May 18, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.83%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

642

450

will professor jiang get labelled as a anti semite in 2026

Dec 31, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

8120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

89

Will I submit a transfer application to Stanford by Mar 15, 2027?

May 18, 8:27 AMMar 16, 8:00 AM

9.53%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

93

Will I restart studying German before the end of 2026?

May 17, 9:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

50

How many formal epistemologists will attend Manifest 2026?

May 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

0

6-10

10+

38

21

14

14

14

Tourist or Jiangly

Jun 29, 8:05 AM

50

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