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Prediction markets for Jiang

Will the USA win the 2026 IMO?

Mar 31, 1:18 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

312031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will Evie complete her degree?

Apr 3, 9:56 PMAug 3, 9:55 PM

68.73%chance

111209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

67

Will I be glad I started tweeting? (3-month self-experiment)

May 22, 4:30 AMJan 1, 5:29 AM

54.75%chance

10399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will India join Russia + China + Iran alliance? (2026 media)

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

10281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Will I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?

May 18, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.64%chance

4115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

613

539

Will I read a serious book for its own sake in the next 2 months?

May 18, 6:40 PMJul 18, 6:39 PM

69.7%chance

373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

84

Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?

May 17, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.21%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

will professor jiang get labelled as a anti semite in 2026

Dec 31, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.58%chance

655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

82

Will I regret going back to school by the end of my first quarter?

May 21, 3:52 AMAug 21, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

93

Will I restart studying German before the end of 2026?

May 17, 9:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

50

Will I return to school Fall 2026?

May 17, 6:41 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

610

591

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