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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

190117709

OptionProbability

Jacob Tsimerman

Sam Raskin

Hong Wang

Other

Song Sun

Jack Thorne

Yu Deng

John Pardon

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Amol Aggarwal

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Tatenda Kubalalika

Will Sawin

Elia Bruè

Aleksandr Logunov

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.43%chance

7813051

OptionVotes

YES

1306

939

Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?

Jan 1, 9:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.06%chance

392845

OptionVotes

YES

1141

564

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

11755

8505

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

351615

OptionVotes

YES

1117

662

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

151206

OptionVotes

YES

1019

928

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.95%chance

25852

OptionVotes

YES

2204

1770

How many strikeouts will Shohei Ohtani get over his career in the MLB?

Feb 19, 3:12 AMFeb 18, 1:29 PM

11459

OptionProbability

At least 720 strikeouts (how many Daisuke Matsuzaka got)

At least 800 strikeouts

At least 934 strikeouts (how many Hyun Jin Ryu got)

At least 1000 strikeouts

At least 1100 strikeouts

At least 1173 strikeouts (how many Mariano Rivera got)

At least 1300 strikeouts

At least 1400 strikeouts

At least 1500 strikeouts

At least 1600 strikeouts

At least 1715 strikeouts (how many Chan Ho Park got)

At least 1918 strikeouts (how many Hideo Nomo got)

At least 2074 strikeouts (how many Fernando Valenzuela got)

At least 2245 strikeouts (how many Tommy John got)

At least 2535 strikeouts (how many Bartolo Colon got)

At least 2803 strikeouts (how many Cy Young got)

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans are orbiting the moon?

May 5, 4:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.58%chance

15429

OptionVotes

YES

1127

931

Will Vladimir Putin outlive Xi Jinping?

Oct 22, 9:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.93%chance

18422

OptionVotes

YES

1012

983

Xi Jinping is the highest leader of China in 2036

Jan 24, 10:19 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

26.85%chance

15328

OptionVotes

YES

1048

965

Vin Jin stocks

May 4, 12:35 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

111

OptionProbability

YES

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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

How many strikeouts will Shohei Ohtani get over his career in the MLB?

Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans are orbiting the moon?

Will Vladimir Putin outlive Xi Jinping?

Xi Jinping is the highest leader of China in 2036

Vin Jin stocks

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