OptionProbability
Bill Gates
Elon Musk
Mr. Beast
Barack Obama
Jeff Bezos
Other
Robert Caro
Sam Altman
Ilya Sutskever
Donald Trump
Gwern Branwen
Benjamin Netanyahu
JD Vance
pope Francis
Jensen Huang
Kamala Harris
Buffett
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Peter Thiel
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Sarah Paine
Tim Cook
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Narendra Modi
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Taylor Swift
Joe Biden
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Satoshi Nakomoto
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
roon
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
Geoffrey Hinton
Scott Alexander
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
Leonardo DiCaprio
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Terence Tao
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
16
15
11
8
8
8
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Richard Hanania
Sam Altman
Growing Daniel
Robin Hanson
Elon Musk
Dave Chapelle
Cersei Lannister (from Game of Thrones)
Lelouch Lamperouge (from Code Geass)
Light Yagami (from Death Note)
Polymarket
Evil
Donald Trump
Men
Polygamous Mormons
Thanos
United States of America
UK
Diogenes
Monday
Engineering
Donald Trump (2004)
The Pivot
Scientology
Sauron
Hitler
Techno-solutionism
Bryan Caplan
Israel
Putin
Iran
Russia
SCOTUS
Aragorn
Queen Elizabeth II
Willingness to start Nuclear War
Japan
South Korea
Christianity
Islam
Zionism
God
Roman Empire
Voldemort
Libertarianism
Burning books
Censorship
Mercantilism
Windows
iOS
Effective Accelerationism
Emmanuel Macron
The Stock Market
Tax Fraud
Slytherin
Gryffindor
Nuclear Power
Gender-Critical Feminists
The Azov Brigade
The Butlerian Jihad
The Torment Nexus
The Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
John "Johnny Rotten" Lydon
𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘛𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 by Robert A. Heinlein
The Rule of Law
Nick Land
Conspiracy Theory
Dolores Umbridge
Pickup Artistry
Racism
Sexism
Deontological Ethics
Virtue Ethics
The Roman Empire
The Roman Republic
Meritocracy
Racial Colorblindness
Idiocracy (2006)
Dementors (in Harry Potter)
Karl Lagerfeld
Francisco Franco
Victual Brothers
Project MKUltra
Hearts of Iron IV
Warhammer 40K
Having an Anime Avatar on Twitter/X
4chan
Eternal Love
Cryptocurrencies
Theocracy
Pronatalism
Havelock Vetinari
Philosemitism
Friedrich Nietzsche
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
Carl Jung
Neo-Luddism
Antisemitism
Europa Universalis IV
House Harkonnen
House Atreides
House Corrino
Immanuel Kant
Frequentism
Elsevier
Ingsoc (1984)
Aviation
O'Brien from 1984
Michael Scott (from The Office)
Catholicism
The Kelly Criterion
The U.S. Founding Fathers
Julius Caesar
Napoleon Bonaparte
The average between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Elon Musk in 2019
The most right-wing effective altruist you (the trader) personally know
having more than three children
private members clubs
Eagle
APAs (beer)
Minions
Travis Kelce
NIMBYism
RFK Jr.
Watching sports
Gambling on Sports
fast food
franchising
Dogs
The Senate Filibuster
strength training
The Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
Mosquitoes
Bears 🐻
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (the alliance between the USSR and Nazi Germany)
Defense
NATO
The Meiji Restoration
Fortnite
David Fincher
Purple
Rammstein (the band)
Grass
Marvin the Martian
US politics
Microsoft
The police (the actual police, not the band)
not putting the toilet seat down after peeing
Great Britain
The British Empire
The Great Basil Empire
the Steam Engine
dogecoin
Chesterton's Fence
Neoliberalism
Extraversion
Antidisestablishmentarianism
Recommending state sponsored euthanasia to people because they're poor
Ordo Templi Orientis
One-party system
Working
Religion
Casinos
Mr. House (Fallout New Vegas)
Dr. House
Antisemitism in 2024
Logging
Queens (the sovereigns)
House M.D.
Protoss (star craft universe)
labeling everything into right-wing and left-wing
"Conspicuous consumption"
Flipping a coin
To kill (your own) dog. [IMPORTANT, PLEASE NOTE: Dog, not puppy.]
Queens (the chess pieces)
Being off the grid
Libria (from Equilibrium, the movie 2002)
Darwin Awards
Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
Using sweepstakes rules as an end-run around gambling regulation
Doomsday prepping
Predatory animals
Eating meat
Aggression
Hunting
The majority of people in the world
Economics
Victimizing others for political power
The wing that has caused the most deaths, *net of any lives it might have saved*
Saying "y'all"
Paganism, like in the Roman Empire
Paganism, like executing Socrates
Standardized academic testing
Homeschooling
The Mafia
Private charity
Diabetes
Motorcycle (instead of a car)
Magic: the Gathering (Azorious)
Magic: the Gathering (Grixis)
Magic: the Gathering (Orzohv)
Magic: the Gathering (Spike)
Political Centerists
Mustache (only, as opposed to bearded or clean shaven)
Clean shaven face
Cocaine and Hookers (as a single concurrent activity, as opposed to serverally or individually)
Nature, as opposed to Nurture
corruption
nepotism
The classification of objects
The average person
The average American
Patents
Embryo selection for IQ
Authority
Debt-trap diplomacy
Kiki
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Intelligence/IQ/g
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Height
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Attractiveness
Polygenic Embryo Selection against Autism
Creating options on this martet that are lowkey the same thing as an already existing option
Hereditary rule
Wealth inheritance
Gold
Eugenics
Progress studies
Everything is communism
monarchism
Good faith voting that prioritizes capitalist over populist interpretation of the market
Bodybuilding
The secret group behind everything
Tall
Wide
Choosing the man over the bear
Looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6’5, blue eyes
a man in finance, trust fund, 6'5, blue eyes
Finance
thinking 4 is a smaller number than -10
Hunks
Bears
J.R.R. Tolkien
Hobbits
Corpulence
Twunks
Uppers
Downers
Ice Hockey
Believing people on the right are fundamentally good.
The Austrian School
Believing people are fundamentally bad.
Believing that the world is an evil illusion which our greatest hope is to escape from.
Believing that everything happens for a reason.
Believing that ending sentences with prepositions is something up with which we should not put.
The honorific "Mrs."
Ineffective charities
Saying « I’m not racist, but… »
Karens
Net-negative counterfactual impact charities
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally good.
Believing that knives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally bad.
Appeasing Russia
Magpies
Corsets
Walternate (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Walter Bishop)
American tourists
Preference for Dinousars looking scaly, as opposed to feathery
Eating
Drinking
Capitalism
Mercantilism
Anarcho-capitalism
Moneylending
« Your mom » jokes
« Ur gay » jokes
« If…, then you’re gay » jokes
Fundamental (or absolute) morality
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were indeed left wing
watching national competitions (world cups etc) instead of professiona club competitions/individual competitions (for instance, UEFA Eurocup (national representations) in football instead of UEFA Champions league (professional sport teams))
Authoritarianism
Game shows
Talk shows
Reality shows
9/11 Conspiracy Theories
Effective political campaigning and coalition building
Independent Voters
The Supreme Court of the United States of America
Ronald Reagan
αρετη
θυμός
στοργή
Becoming a lord with the lord title company thingy
Believing humans have heritable physical traits
Believing humans have heritable cognitive traits
The person who shot at Trump
Believing that you need to believe things that aren't true in order to be a good person
Believing that you should have a good life if and only if you're a good person
Voting for the winner of every US presidential election since 2000
E/Acc
Use of stone tools
Farming
Domestication of animals
Backyard chickens
Sailing
The right of gay men to protect their marijuana farm with guns.
Believing illegal immigrants have heritable cognitive traits
Libtard
Generalist
The cool kids
Gamers
Joe Manchin
Straight non-white Latino women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Straight white men aged 55-64 from rural Florida who are atheist and who were educated toward high school
Lesbian white women aged 18-24 from rural Alaska who are Evangelical and who were educated to high school
JD Vance
doping for body performance
the "culture war"
The decisions corporate executives/ upper management make at work
How corporate executives/ upper management vote personally
Transmedicalism
People in 2024 who enjoy the film White Chicks
The YouTube political content creators that get more views.
New money
Bashar al-Assad
Hamas
Homeowner in the hood (D+80, minority-majority precinct) owns two pickup trucks parked on the driveway and has an American flag hanging off the porch. No other banners/ signs.
The belief that a largely unmoderated social media platform should not face boycotts or government censorship
Lex Fridman
"Yes"
Looking for a good deal
"Your right to free speech ends just where my ears begin"
Elites
Nobles
Small business
Heroes
"Sex work is bad because it's sex"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get sex"
long live the queen
Youtube recommendation algorithm
Hard-working, devout Catholic, traditional-value-minded, entrepreneurial undocumented immigrants
Gay Mormon tax
Bearish Bulls
The original Constitution of the United States, without any amendments
The Constitution of the United States, with the first 10 amendments (Bill of Rights)
The current Constitution of the United States, with its 27 amendments
English Americans
Saddam Hussein
Anarcho-Egoism
Eco-Fascism
Fourth political theory
People in 42024 BCE who enjoyed Grugh the Caveman's painting, "Grugh kill bison with spear, Fronk weak caveman no help"
Legalizing gambling on politics
Futarchy
The works of Christopher Nolan
X should be legal because freedom is more important than Y consequence.
Beating your kids
Requiring your kids to accept hugs/kisses from relatives when they don't want to
Legacy admissions - getting into a university because your parents are alumni
Economic literacy
Killing your neighbor's pet and eating it
Killing your neighbor's pet but not eating it
The madonna/whore complex
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into Representatives of The People
Alcohol prohibitionism
Subsidiarity
Anarcho-cannibalism
Attacking Karl Popper with a fireplace poker
Thomas Jefferson's relationship with Sally Hemings
Living in a town where everyone votes for the same political party
Living in a town where everyone goes to the same church
Living in a town where everyone works for the same employer
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the same school
Homeschooled kids, like Rebecca Black ("Friday" singer) or Cady, the main character from Mean Girls
“The national debt is now $xx trillion, we need to stop borrowing against our grandchildren”
Thinking you or other people speak without an accent, as if that is even possible lol
speaking with the same accent as the median TV presenter
Overpollution and burning fossil fuels, thereby ruining the environment for our grandchildren
Not charging emitters for the social cost of carbon, causing overpollution and fossil fuel use
Having an independent central bank
Trying to take an average over a space that has no well defined average
Political violence
Disliking the American Constitution because it’s a product of the Enlightenment
the madhi coming to the world this century
Having no central bank.
WVO Quine
Phosphorus
Allowing actors to profit from the positive externalities they create
Free banking
Having a currency board
Floating exchange rates
Enclosure of the commons
Inventing insulting nicknames for your political opponents (e.g. "Sleepy Joe")
Turning the names of politicians you oppose into rude words (e.g. "santorum")
"Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics" warning labels.
Changing the name of a food on your menu to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom fries")
Changing the name of a drug that you sell to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom kush", "red white and blue tar heroin")
The Hidden-Variable Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The "All About the Math, No Interpretation" of Quantum Mechanics
Concorde
Using LLMs for linguistic analysis in court cases
Using category theory to analyze the Christian Doctrine of the Trinity
Bias
Substack
Being undecided in the 2024 election
“The west is the best” (said in 2016)
“The west is the best” (said today)
Committing a financial crime
sugar
Being neither left wing nor right wing
Hating the West Wing (in 2002)
Hating the West Wing (today)
Shit talking on internet communities, then pretending they didn't
Adultery
Nude Africa
Liking Harry Potter in 2021
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) striking at this point of the presidential race
Saying “Persia” instead of “Iran”
Plastic surgery
@SteveSokolowski
Thinking the one person we select as President is more important than the 1,000s of government positions they will appoint new members to after they are elected.
Voting in line with Blackrock, Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Pfizer, Moderna and the rest of the corporate industrial complex.
Believes corporate personhood is the largest issue in this election.
Gender-confirming conspicuous consumption
Gender-confirming consumption
Vice signaling: performatively doing something "bad" to show defiance of someone you disapprove of
Sydney Sweeney's boobs
Watches over $500
Think tanks
Coming from wealth
Black ethnonationalism
White ethnonationalism
Jewish Ethnonationalism
Arab ethnonationalism
Christian nationalism
Being pro-choice for race-selective abortions
Running ads on an alt-right website because the ads are cheap and then going "oops" when your audience becomes notably less tolerant of others
Political rallies
Embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
The Uyghur genocide
Honor killings
Political extremism
Opposing xenogenders
Believing all spirits not in ingroup are demons
Believing you cannot be “plural” without having a dissociative disorder
Copyright law
Compulsory heterosexuality
Virginity == purity
Hormone-activated pheramone perfume
Kegel exercises
Missionary sex with lights off
Thinking "righty tighty, lefty loosey" is about politics
Eating chicken without seasoning
jk Rowling
white freezies
Boiling chicken
Frying chicken
Grilling chicken
Roasting chicken
The average first-wave feminist by today’s standards
Portuguese retirees
Bimetallism
British politics
first past the post voting
Party Switchers (new ideology relative to old)
The belief that vaccines cause autism
Gollum
Smeagol
Boromir
Blohm & Voss P 194
Disliking Trump but not thinking he is a fascist
Calling China “West Taiwan”
Not using tone tags
Not using trigger warnings
Being a virgin
making a big thing out of being a virgin
The concept of virginity
Thinking "AI art" is art
Block Plurality (“plurality-at-large”) Voting
The One Ring
The Philippines
Tariffs
Free trade
The fortnight before the US election
Lisa Murkowski
Spending the night before the election in a US fort
Dubai
Election fraud
Voter fraud
Worrying about voter fraud
Worrying about election fraud
Airstrikes in Beirut
Calling Mongolia "North Taiwan"
Pennsylvania
Calling Japan "Northeast Taiwan"
Calling Kazakhstan "West West Taiwan"
Balloon animals
Breeding cats
CrossFit
Ross Perot
Malty beer
Watery beer
Sparta
Beef jerky
Water polo
Spray tans
Vriska Serket
The winner of the 2024 United States presidential election
Skipping leg day
Garbage
Christmas
Batman/Bruce Wayne
Statues
Statutes
Pink capitalism
Der Ring des Nibelungen in 2024
National bolshevism aka nazbol
Killing Harambe The Gorilla
Gorilla Grodd
Poll Denialism
Killing countless animals in the process of factory farming
The year 1984
George Orwell shooting that elephant in Burma
Trans-Exclusionary Radical Feminism
Supporting Genghis Khan in the US today
mars
the sun
going to space
Accelerationist My Little Pony fanfic communities
Elvis
fillers (cosmetic)
Orcs
Dwarves
AI (not al)
Baby
Hillbilly Capitalism
Genocide
Opposing Al (not ai)
Manhattan-like Project for AGI
Opposable thumbs
Humans
Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes
Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles
Cream-colored ponies and crisp apple strudels
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
The Inca civilisation
Liechtenstein
Reducing the deficit
people who call themselves "classical liberals"
people who actually fit the definition of a classical liberal
Tulsi Gabbard (in 2020)
Treating "the definition" of a word as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
Treating "the grammar" of a language as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
The future of the US Democratic Party, relative to its current position
The future of the US Republican Party, relative to its current position
National Treasure
Survivor (the reality show)
Thanksgiving
Feminazism i.e. violent mass enslavement and genocidal extermination of men
Populism
Centrism
Andrew Jackson
Being apolitical
Microstates
non-geographic nations
Writing in Hailey Welch for president
Unintentionally spoiling your ballot
Ea-nāṣir
Seventh Day Adventists
Criticizing anything left-wing
Italy
Tucking in your shirt
Hats (male)
Hats (female)
Shoes with laces
Eggman's announcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XyEosgoGgg
Adaptive fitness
Making the world worse to maximize applicability of your adaptive fitness
Being a stupid human
Syria's Sednaya Prison, "Assad's human slaughterhouse"
Protectionism
The average American ten years ago, compared to the average American today
Plato
Aristotle
Toonocalypse
Federalist Party
The San Francisco Freedom Club
People who don’t vote
Gambling
Lucio Russo
Back to office policies
Sam's Club
George Washington
Taking 'Roko's Basilisk' Seriously
Mohammed
Strasserism
This market continuously closing and reopening
Buying a Tesla
John Adams
The unbearable slowness of being
Reality itself
Thomas Jefferson
Siding with India in the India-Pakistan conflicts of 2025
Playing tennis
Anime
Working for the FBI
Working for the CIA
Duke Nukem (Character)
Proud Boys
Letting a cat outside
Scambaiting
The Iranian regime's use of rape, torture, sexual assault to suppress women's protests in 2022-23
War
Consequences despite integrity
Lying to conform to the group
Falun Gong
Hitman: World of Assassination (2021)
Baroque Architecture
Political purges (targeted, systematic removal of opponents)
Druze people
fireworks
Wild-caught bacon
Wild-caught diseases
Crude oil
Lard
Borrowing against our grandchildren, thereby ruining the economy for them
Wild-caught salmon
Medical-bill bankruptcy
JFK Jr. (edit: meant RFK Jr.)
Having a pet cow
Rape
Bedouin people
Taking sides in a conflict between two deeply right wing countries
Biltong
Michigan
drone shows
Game shows with no monetary prize
macOS
Bro try herhood
International Intrigue - Your cheeky guide to a complicated world. Get the 5-minute newsletter designed by former diplomats at https://www.internationalintrigue.io
Alois Mundo
Botox raven cosplay
Murder
Olive oil
FreeBSD
NetBSD
OpenBSD
The Sinclair method
Having other countries and/or people pay for your security
Jaywalking
Opinion columnists
Rapeseed oil
Canola oil
Moving in together after the second date
Sam Dalrymple
Sesame oil
One night stands
The New York Times, as of 7/30/2025
Sam Kriss
Being poor while paying massive taxes towards "free" healthcare
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Gordon Ramsay
Destiny
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Severus Snape (from Harry Potter)
Walter White (from Breaking Bad)
Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)
Dobby (from Harry Potter)
@Bayesian
Manifold Markets
Kalshi
Good
Steven Pinker
Sam Harris
Einstein
Jreg (Satirical anti-centrist)
Artificial Intelligence
This market
Richard Dawkins
Women
Sisyphus
Elon Musk in 2014
Mao
Stalin
Friday
Humor
Gandalf
Participating in this market
The Ivy League
Xi Jinping
China
Software Engineering
North Korea
Europe
Atheism
Buddhism
Judaism
Effective Altruism
Metaculus
Books
Linux
Android
Skibidi toilet
Rationalussy
Satan
Pastafarianism
Taxes
Sam Bankman-Fried
Magnus Carlsen
Hufflepuff
Ravenclaw
Chess.com
Lichess
AGI
Albus Dumbledore
Minerva McGonagall
Hermione Granger
Taylor Swift
Sirius Black
Harry Potter (as a character)
Ron Weasley
Luna Lovegood
Trotskyists
Gay White Cis Men
Solarpunk
The Buddhadharma
Freedom of Speech
𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘥 by Robert A. Heinlein
Nick Bostrom
Class-First Socialist Analysis
Wikipedia
Solar power
Wind power
Geothermal power
Hydropower
SpaceX
Tesla
The Rawlsian Veil of Ignorance
Consequentialist Ethics
You, The Trader On This Market
The Future
Surprise
Zootopia (2016)
MrBeast
Patroni (in Harry Potter, plural form of Patronus)
Keep the Aspidistra Flying
hermit crabs
The Baltic Way
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Minecraft
Project Blue Book
Roblox
Lawlessness
Drugs
International
The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Antinatalism
Geoengineering
Youtube
The Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Bayesian Reasoning
Sci-Hub
Bernard Marx (from Brave New World)
Karl Marx
Guy Montag (from Fahrenheit 451)
Coolfold self-immolation
Robin Hood
Pope Francis
Transaction fees [shares*prob*(1 - prob)*0.07]
Manifold poker nights
The concept of the left-right political spectrum
The Artemis program
Jesus
Squidward
Ozempic
Georgism
The most left-wing effective accelerationist you (the trader) personally know
Ghosting
Traffic lights
The colour red
Soccer
The Marx Brothers
All votes in this market are equal regardless of mana (left), but the creator is making a big profit (right)
Parrots
Chupacabra
academia
YIMBYism
A healthy diet
Cats
cardio
Proportional representation
Ants 🐜
The United Nations
GMOs
Squirrels 🐿️
organic food
Renaming something to avoid bad PR
The protestors at Tiananmen Square
Curiosity
The Allies in World War 2
The Entente in World War 1
Disease
Video Games
Québec Separatism
Nanotechnology
Speedrunning
Boobs
Unity
Scott Pilgrim
TV shows
Cable TV
Greek Letters
Amnesia
Dyson Spheres
Time travel
Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Borgs (Star Trek )
The Police (the band, not the actual police)
The People's Front of Judea
Taylor Swift
Selena Gomez
Justin Bieber
Kurt Cobain
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Soup
Having sex in the fields to make the crops grow
Liberalism
mind control
Changing your mind
Spelling mistakes
Memes
The minimum wage in Nordic countries
The level of wealth inequality in Sweden
Ernst Thälmann
Lactation cookies
The Warsaw pact
Resisting the ayatollahs' regime, like Saddam did in the 80s
Kibbutzim
Golden rice (vitamin A enriched to prevent blindness in the Third World)
Open borders, a Koch brothers proposal
The internet
protesting
Politics (in general)
Making sure you understand options before voting for them
Tiktok
Dungeons and Dragons
Sex work to pay your own way through medical school
Needing a license to cut hair
Having the proper amount of esteem for Jews - not too much, not too little
White-collar jobs
Anarchism
The Bronx
People holding elected office
Queens (the borough)
Chess
Queens (the men who dress as women)
Opposing Zionism, like Saddam always did
Resisting the imperialistic American invasion of Iraq, like Saddam did
Rejecting the absolute monarchy of Kuwait, like Saddam did in 1990
still greeting people with fist bump (despite COVID is in the past)
no gluten diet (in people without gluten related intolerance or disease) as a hobby
The Khmer Rouge
Two-state solution
Jonathan Swift
Holodomor
Asking ‘Would You Rather?’
Prey animals
Pro Immortalism
Vegetarianism
Veganism
Passivity
Exploiting the victim stance for political power
Gemini star sign
Believing your views are evidence-based even as you label an entire domain of human knowledge as the opposing wing
Paganism
Mistakes
the Judean People's Front
Autodidacticism
Phonics
Catdog (portmanteau referring to a cat and a dog joined at the waist facing away from each other, each with their own two front paws for a total of four legs)
Believing that the world would end during our lifetime
Magic: the Gathering (in person, paper magic)
Magic: the Gathering Arena (Hearthstone client imitation)
Magic: the Gathering Online (before pretty pretty Arena, there was MTGO)
Magic: the Gathering (Timmy)
Magic: the Gathering (Johnny)
Magic: the Gathering (Vorthos)
Tax exemptions for non-profit status
501(c)(3) entities (the most common 501 tax exempt entity by tax identification)
Coffee
Beards (facial hair, excluding mustache only, as opposed to clean shaven face)
NPR (National Public Radio)
AP (Associated Press)
Benjamin Franklin (the historical figure, not the various currency)
Aptitude for Mathematics in general
Aptitude for Science in general
Aptitude in S.T.E.M. in general
Aptitude for History in general
Aptitude for Political Science in general
Aptitude for Entertainment in general
Aptitude "in Bed" in general
Aptitude for Languages in general
Aptitude for Writing in general
Nurture, as opposed to Nature
Ineptitude, in general
Trust
Double standards
Privacy
Honesty
The truth
Hope
Big Government
Obamacare
Sheeple
The greater good
The ideal person
The ideal American
Equal opportunity for all
Equal opportunity for all, but more equal for some
Bouba
The bettors on this market
Dying with dignity
Abortion of Down's Syndrome Fetuses
Abortion
IVF
Polygenic Embryo Selection
Monogenetic Embryo Selection in IVF
Pineapple on pizza
Overdosing on drugs
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Educational Attainment
Polygenic Embryo Selection for general health
Polygenic Embryo Selection against cancer risk
Creating passive-agressive options on this market
Voting on options for this market based on whether you like them instead of what side of the political spectrum they actually fit on
Human Cloning
Cloning John von Neumann
Voluntary Eugenics
Manifest (the event hosted by Manifold)
Everything is fascism
republicanism (opposition to monarchy, support of self-governance)
Twinks
Camille Paglia
Coziness
Slenderness
Field Hockey
Air Hockey
Believing people are fundamentally good.
Believing that responsible stewardship of animals, plants, and natural resources is a fundamental duty of humankind.
Pope Francis' encyclical letter Laudato si'
Virtue signaling
Saying « I’m not a rationalist, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually not being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally bad.
Believing that knives are fundamentally bad.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
thinking 0+4i is a smaller number than -10
modified newtonian dynamics
Walter Bishop (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Olivia Dunham (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Bolivia/Fauxlivia (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Olivia Dunham)
Peter Bishop (character from Fringe)
Mother's Day
Queerbaiting
Dermatillomania
Femboys
Sour patch kids
Being attracted to overweight men
Being attracted to overweight women
Believing that AI should be regulated
Anarchism
Making things worse in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Furthering the goals of the right wing in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Touching grass
Relative morality
Invention of television.
Invention of the phone.
Invention of the wheel.
Emergence of social media in the internet/information age.
Big data
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were actually right-wing and not communist countries
Max Stirner's defintion of a "spook."
Not realizing eastern bloc countries were victims of Soviet imperialism
Soviet imperialism
the Holodomor
forced labor in the gulag
Progress
Alternative medicine
Authoritarian Socialism
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for not espousing communist orthodoxy
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for espousing right-wing ideas
“Biden should drop out”
Podcasts
spitting on people
Body dysmorphia
Anorexia
Continental philosophy
Analytic philosophy
The right to use anything as your name that you choose as long as it isn't for purposes of fraud
αγάπη
φιλία
ερως
Becoming vegetarian because Jesus loves animals
Believing non-human animals have heritable physical traits
Believing non-human animals have heritable cognitive traits
The Giver
Pottery
Writing
Control of fire
Lack of significant body hair compared to other primates
Behavioral modernity
Bipedalism
Specialist
Joe Biden
2024 Summer Olympics Opening
Kyrsten Sinema
Ideal philosophy student of perfect emptiness
Straight Asian women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Kamala Harris
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly
Anonymous
THE International System of Units
interpreting everything as " it's just a slavery with extra steps ... "
doping for mental performance
Good little Biden
Any presidential candidate doping for mental performance :)
Betting objectively negative options on this market towards the side of the political spectrum you don’t identify with
People in 2004 who enjoyed the film White Chicks
Banksy
Being American but liking Hamas
Thinking Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer
The belief that a bookstore that carries objectionable content should not face boycotts or government censorship
"No"
"Maybe"
"Sex work is bad because it's work"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get work"
Student section at college football games
Land value tax
Gay Mormons
The metric system, like "see ya in a megasecond" or "ugh, 295K weather is fine but 300K is just unbearable"
The original Constitution of the United States, without any English
the state of Kerala in India
Muammar Gaddafi
People in 1424 who enjoyed "The Canterbury Tales"
People in 2024 who enjoy "The Canterbury Tales"
A tax imposed on, collected by, and funding Gay Mormons
The Bee Movie
Jazz
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one corporation/network of corporations
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one person
Madonna (the musician)
Putting too much power in Representatives of The People
"Footloose" starring Kevin Bacon
Eating dog meat
Putting the adequate amount of power in Representatives of The People
Charitably listening to the concerns of the other party.
Women's Suffragettes
John Brown (19th century abolitionist)
Pitbull (singer)
Naivety
David Ben-Gurion
Thomas Jefferson's letter to the Danbury Baptists
Living in a town where everyone goes to the Unitarian church
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the Montessori school
Living in a kibbutz where everyone works for the same employer
Wittgenstein’s Tractatus
Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations
Sleep
Complaining about your grandparents' generation ruining the economy for you
Richard Rorty
Having an accent
Allowing polluters to pay to pollute (i.e. "carbon tax")
Richard Even Rortier
Gavagai
"Possible Girls" by Neil Sinhababu
"Can There Be Vague Objects?" by Gareth Evans
Hesperus
The Duhem-Quine Thesis
Potlucks
Making actors bear the cost of the negative externalities they create
Currency pegs
Capital controls
Hilary Putnam (1977)
Hilary Putnam (1994)
The Principle of Sufficient Reason
Manifold comments in the past few weeks
Empirio-criticism
The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
Knowing a ton about Islam despite neither believing nor being raised in it.
Postmodernism
Creating an option in this market and then accidentally betting it in the wrong direction
Philosophical realism
Algebraists
Analysts
Scientific realism
Scientific antirealism
Liking IRV over first past the post, but not liking approval, STAR voting, or Condorcet methods
Being capable of steelmanning the opposition.
Intuitionism (in mathematics)
Justice
Open marriages
Reading nasty people who diaagree with u just for the dopamine hit
Liking Harry Potter in 2019
ASI
Monophysitism
The indictment of NYC Mayor Eric Adams
Emitting CO2 to produce solar panels to be sold on an open market
Gender-confirming medical treatments
Minoxidil
Enlightenment Now
short-selling crude oil
Statistical election models
Being aware of the influence special interest has pumped into social media recommendation/search bias.
Value signaling consumption
Value signaling outfit
Microdosing
Visiting the opera
Being pro-choice for sex-selective abortions
Writing in Joe Biden for president
"Holy hempers" - people who say its okay to smoke weed because Jesus also smoked weed
"Crackheads for Christ" - people who say its okay to smoke crack because Jesus also smoked crack
Going to church without believing it
Driving a hybrid minivan to accommodate your 3+ children
Decree 770
Doodling
Thinking AI art is theft
Thinking going to church without believing in it is an example of embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
Responsive and spontaneous desire
Kink support/accountability groups
Using mindfulness meditation for better seggs
3d printed, anatomically correct depictions of larger clitoral network
Enthusiastic consent
consent smell aromatherapy candles
Individualised medicine offering pleasure mapping to discover eroggenous zones
A seggs dungeon with a focus on aftercare
A lubricant sommelier certification course
A seggsual fantasy based on consent negotiations
Pro state massage
Hands-on, self-motivated sex
Quick learner with a passion for processes and multitasking in bed
Detail-oriented and organized sex
Missionary sex with lights on
Keir Starmer
Holodomor denial
orange popsicles
Not buying olives with stones
Asking “why?” over and over like 4 yr olds do
Going camping
Cities
Trekking
Mountaineering
Breaking the law
Jill Stein
First time voters.
Home vegetable gardens
Femcels
Voting
Frodo
Sam Gamyi
Legolas
Stealing from a bank
Wiping from front to back
fiction
News
Marxism-Rodgerism
Independent journalism
Magic
Today's Vietnam
National parks
Autarky
Playing Fortnite before the US Election
Non-partisan elections
Biden dropping out
NIH grants
Cybersecurity
This market crashing on mobile because there are too many options
Being broke
Early voting
Dan Osborn
Fingerboarding
Podiatry
Hacky sack
Stray cat trap, neuter, and release
Hoppy beer
Skunky weed
Fruity weed
Grassy weed
Libertarian Progressivism
Progressive Libertarianism
Coloring
Doing Zumba
Playing tuba
Driving Ubers
Ballot initiatives
Doing the one block vertical jump for the beef
Being anxious about the election
Halloween
Making Election Day a holiday
Anarcho-communist homosexual-fascism aka ancom homofash
Killing Peanut The Squirrel
Killing Gorilla Grodd
First Quantization
Second Quantization
1984 by George Orwell
Saying “literally 1984”
The number 1984
Vatican II
earth
the moon
'That 1 friend whose politics makes no sense' in the latest Man Carrying Thing video
Space
Elves
Elfs
Universes Beyond
Waiting in line
election day doomscrolling
doomscrolling (general)
DnD 1e
DnD 5e
Al (not ai)
Al (Yankovic)
Nothing
Time
We Didn’t Start the Fire (song by Billy Joel)
This Land Is Your Land (song by Woody Guthrie)
Opposing AI
Punk
Opposing Force (Half-Life expansion pack)
Opossums
BDSM
Manifold’s average user base
Liberal Democrats (UK)
Silver white winters that melt into springs
Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes
Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings
Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Teachers who swear in class
Pahoehoe
Aa
The Cucuteni-Trypillia culture
Treating your grandma poorly
Safe Sex
Labor unions
UAW
Misandry i.e. hate and discrimination against men
Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party
“Y.M.C.A.” by Village People
Twitter (in 2021)
New social medias created because of perceived problems in an existing one (e.g. Truth Social or Bluesky)
Sonic the Hedgehog
Shoes with velcro
Shoes with zips
Wearing trousers as a woman
Skolem's paradox
The Onion
Community Notes on Twitter
Free Trade, in 2024
Donald Trump at whatever time in his life he was most left-wing
Lilith (Diablo 4)
Socrates
Abraham Lincoln
Philip K. Dick
Luigi Mangione
Yourself (reader) ten years ago, compared to yourself today
The Young Turks (news show) in 2016
The Young Turks (news show) today
Jesse Singal
People who don’t vote out of protest
League of Legends
Costco
dath ilan
Scientists
People who don’t vote because they can’t
Ubiratan d’Ambrosio
Ernst Mach
Ratatouille (film)
Ratatouille (dish)
Juche
Voting for Jill Stein
Octopus
Buying a Tesla (in 2019)
Being a lawyer
Needing a lawyer
The Matrix
Battlestar Galactica
Ursula Le Guin
President Xi Jinping
Manifest 2025
Astronauts
Working for NASA
Male vs Female boxing fights
Integrity despite consequences
Siding with the Iranian regime
modal realism
Boxbox riven cosplay
Classical music
being a public intellectual with ostensibly left-leaning views, but whose career would be obsolete without family wealth/connections
Indoor air quality nerds
100
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95
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81
78
73
69
68
59
58
58
56
54
52
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48
47
47
47
45
38
31
29
29
25
24
23
19
16
11
10
6
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OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Premieres in 2027
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Fred and George are twins irl
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Peeves is a reoccurring character
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Hermione is white
mandrake root on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A house elf is shown on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
It's woke
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
At least one of the actors is transgender
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Dobby makes an appearance
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Premieres in 2026
We get AGI before it premieres
Keir Starmer is in it
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Zendaya is cast in the show
Features an explicitly transgender character
Fred and George have the same actor
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hermione is Indian
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
97
94
92
92
90
89
88
87
86
86
80
80
80
78
78
75
75
75
74
70
68
65
65
65
64
57
57
55
55
55
50
50
46
44
42
41
40
38
37
34
32
32
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
27
27
26
24
22
21
20
17
16
16
15
15
15
11
11
10
10
10
7
7
7
6
5
5
4
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Keir Starmer
Angela Rayner
Nigel Farage
Wes Streeting
Kemi Badenoch
Rachel Reeves
Oliver Dowden
Yvette Cooper
Bridget Phillipson
Jonathan Reynolds
John Healey
Jeremy Hunt
Tom Tugendhat
Johnny Mercer
Jess Phillips
Daisy Cooper
Mark Harper
Victoria Prentis
Shabana Mahmood
Louise Haigh
Dan Jarvis
Angela Eagle
Suella Braverman
Mel Stride
David Lammy
Pat McFadden
Peter Kyle
Ian Murray
Lisa Nandy
Emily Thornberry
Priti Patel
James Cleverly
Liz Kendall
Steve Reed
Hilary Benn
Rebecca Long-Bailey
Ian Lavery
Michael Gove
Penny Mordaunt
Gillian Keegan
Ed Milliband
Jo Stevens
Clive Lewis
Barry Gardiner
David Miliband
John McDonnell
Stephen Kinnock
Ed Davey
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Thangam Debbonaire
Diane Abbott
Kwasi Kwarteng
Jude Bellingham
JK Rowling
David Tennant
Dominic Cummings
William, Prince of Wales
Piers Morgan
Jimmy Carter
100
30
30
23
21
21
19
19
19
16
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Max Tegmark
Emmett Shear
Bruce Schneier
George Church
Scott Aaronson
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ben Bernanke
Stephen Fry
Tim Urban
Grimes
Scott Alexander
A former Fed Chair
Neel Nanda
A professor of a Chinese university
Stuart Russell
Yoshua Bengio
Toby Ord
Geoffrey Hinton
Carl Feynman
Vitalik Buterin
Yuval Noah Harari
Nick Bostrom
Dwarkesh Patel
Kevin Roose
Geoffrey Irving
Billy Perrigo
Manifold
Helen Toner
Gwern
Ezra Klein
Evan Hubinger
Patrick McKenzie
Publishers Weekly
Vox
Christine Peterson
Keach Hagey
Bill Gates
Joe Rogan
San Francisco Chronicle
Booklist
NPR
Politico
Lex Fridman
Tucker Carlson
The Economist
Matthew Yglesias
David Chalmers
Peter Singer
A former US Secretary of Treasury
A former US Secretary of State
Time
Any five current members of the UK Parliament
A former US Secretary of Energy
A former US Secretary of Commerce
WIRED
Eric Schmidt
Gillian Hadfield
Karen Hao
A review in The Atlantic
Telegraph
Kurzgesagt
The New York Times Book Review
Peter Norvig
At least five Nobel laureates
Rolling Stone
The New Yorker
A Science editorial
The Guardian
Ray Kurzweil
John Schulman
A current pope
Financial Times
Bloomberg Businessweek
Forbes
A New Scientist editorial
BBC
A current US Secretary of Treasury
John Oliver
IEEE Spectrum
Vanity Fair
Elon Musk
Demis Hassabis
Mustafa Suleyman
A current UK prime minister
Judea Pearl
António Guterres
Foreign Affairs
Barack Obama
A Scientific American editorial
A Nature editorial
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Any five current United States representatives
The Wall Street Journal
Anthropic
Shane Legg
Ilya Sutskever
roon
JD Vance
Alexandr Wang
Daron Acemoglu
A high-ranking Chinese government official
Reuters
RFK Jr
Ivanka Trump
Narendra Modi
Dario Amodei
Benjamin Netanyahu
Terence Tao
OpenAI
CNN
Any five current United States senators
Peter Thiel
Jimmy Fallon
Mira Murati
Richard Sutton
A current Fed Chair
Ursula von der Leyen
DeepMind
Daniela Amodei
Jensen Huang
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Joe Biden
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Satya Nadella
Greg Egan
A current US Secretary of Energy
Bill Clinton
JK Rowling
Noam Chomsky
Fox News
Chris Olah
A current US Secretary of Commerce
A current US Secretary of State
Donald J. Trump
Yann LeCun
Mr. Beast
Vladimir Putin
Tim Cook
Kamala Harris
King Charles
Xi Jinping
Taylor Swift
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
90
84
84
83
76
76
75
72
68
68
67
66
66
62
58
57
57
56
54
54
53
52
50
48
46
44
44
44
44
43
43
42
41
40
39
39
39
37
37
37
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
32
30
28
27
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Ernie
Joshua
Chris/Strutheo
Jensen Huang
Sundar Pichai
Larry Page
Sergey Brin
Bill Gates
Bram Cohen
Vitalik Buterin
Demis Hassabis
Lex Fridman
Xi Jinping
Kim Jong Un
Jeff Dean
Isaac King
Geoffrey Hinton
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ilya Sutskever
Austin (manifold)
Glenn Shotwell
Emad Mostaque
Greg Brockman
Bruce Schneier
AGM (chaos monkey)
Kind Edward
Patrick Collison
Balaji
Stewart Butterfeld
Prince Harry
Tim Sweeney
Peter Thiel
Garry Tan
Jessica Livingston
Andrew Ng
Robin Hanson
Trump
Dwarkesh Patel
Marc Andreesen
Larry Ellison
Grimes
Patrick McKenzie
Travis Kalanick
Lionel Messi
James (manifold)
Biden
Mark Zuckerberg
JK Rowling
Meghan Markle
Gavin Newsom
Prince William
Jack Dorsey
Martin Shkreli
Tyler Cowen
Oprah Winfrey
Paul Graham
Beff Jezos
Tim Ferriss
Elon Musk
Satya Nadella
Taylor Swift
Sam Altman
Joe Rogan
Jeff Bezos
100
100
100
88
85
73
69
68
67
66
65
64
61
58
58
57
54
52
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
38
37
32
31
26
25
21
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
9
5
4
4
1
OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
96
92
90
86
86
84
83
77
76
75
75
74
72
71
67
66
66
66
66
64
64
62
61
61
60
59
59
59
59
56
54
52
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
44
44
43
41
38
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
30
30
28
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
14
12
12
11
11
11
9
8
8
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2579
732
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1552
919
OptionProbability
>5bn
>8bn
>10bn
>16bn
> 20bn
> 30bn
89
87
79
70
47
29
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1112
956