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John Byrne News
Prediction markets for John Byrne
Prediction markets for John Byrne
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 12:55 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
17.43%
chance
30
7834
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2079
497
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
33.32%
chance
17
7377
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2045
552
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
10.29%
chance
22
4320
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2687
574
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
14.47%
chance
22
3780
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2380
283
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
23.33%
chance
23
3405
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1363
839
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