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John Byrne News
Prediction markets for John Byrne
Prediction markets for John Byrne
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
10.71%
chance
24
12029
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3374
219
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 12:55 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
12.56%
chance
36
8344
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2551
415
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
10.26%
chance
23
4344
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2692
574
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
11.84%
chance
25
4017
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2618
247
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
21.72%
chance
25
3509
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1450
814
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