OptionProbability
Ken Paxton
James Talarico
John Cornyn
Wesley Hunt
Collin Allred
Jasmine Crockett
Other
53
47
0
Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee
The GOP nominee outruns Ted Cruz's 2018 margin
John Cornyn resigns from the Senate early
Ken Paxton resigns as Texas AG early
Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to an executive branch position
Ken Paxton becomes a federal judge
Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to head a major department (i.e. DOJ, FBI)
The GOP nominee outruns Donald Trump's 2020 margin
The SAVE Act is passed as part of a deal to get Paxton to withdraw
One of the two GOP runoff candidates drops out
John Cornyn is the GOP nominee
100
34
8
5
4
1
Donald Trump
JD Vance
Mike Johnson
Ted Cruz
Dave McCormick
Rick Scott
Josh Hawley
John Thune
Rand Paul
Lindsey Graham
50
OptionVotes
YES
NO
150
67
