John May News
Prediction markets for John May
What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 28, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15951112
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
84
83
83
82
82
80
79
79
78
77
77
77
76
76
76
75
74
73
72
72
71
71
70
70
69
69
69
69
66
65
65
64
64
64
62
62
62
61
57
57
55
55
52
50
50
50
49
48
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
44
42
40
37
37
36
35
32
32
31
29
28
27
27
27
23
22
19
18
18
17
16
16
14
14
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?
Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM
16649368
OptionProbability
89
22
17
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
33.32%chance
177377
OptionVotes
2045
552
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
10.29%chance
214300
OptionVotes
2687
574
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM
23.33%chance
233405
OptionVotes
1363
839
By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?
May 3, 5:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
7%chance
242825
OptionVotes
2682
715
Will Mr. Donald Trump join Manifold Markets before the end of 2025?
Aug 11, 10:20 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
1.49%chance
252789
OptionVotes
1893
944
OptionVotes
1830
546
OptionVotes
1134
776
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
59.88%chance
19407
OptionVotes
1081
928
Will John Tory run for Mayor of Toronto in the 2026 mayoral election?
Jun 19, 5:53 AMOct 26, 10:59 PM
57.37%chance
441
OptionVotes
116
86