John May News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17984322

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

28379

3002

Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies?

Aug 25, 3:08 AMDec 31, 6:53 PM

2712989

OptionProbability

The Man Who Killed Don Quioxte

Brazil

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Mr. Nobody

Welcome to the N-H-K

The Assessment

Revlover

The Congress (2013)

Lurker

Code 3

Masthishka Maranam

The Artist

The French Dispatch

The Fountain

The Square

Cosmopolis

Swiss Army Man

Cloud Atlas

Southland Tales

Fitzcarraldo

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

3374

219

Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?

Feb 26, 8:10 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

85.43%chance

227606

OptionVotes

YES

2006

601

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.65%chance

135870

OptionVotes

YES

5679

2185

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.26%chance

234344

OptionVotes

YES

2692

574

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.72%chance

253509

OptionVotes

YES

1450

814

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

May 3, 5:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5.8%chance

283328

OptionVotes

YES

3139

684

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

24662

OptionVotes

YES

1164

737

Will the physical remains of Donald Trump lie in state in the capitol rotunda?

Mar 27, 10:28 PMDec 27, 10:20 PM

58.35%chance

9324

OptionVotes

YES

1064

950

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Will the physical remains of Donald Trump lie in state in the capitol rotunda?

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