John May News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17280548

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

2507

379

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Mar 11, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

96.58%chance

74750

OptionVotes

YES

5314

188

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.38%chance

224322

OptionVotes

YES

2669

576

Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?

Feb 26, 8:10 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

76.21%chance

213635

OptionVotes

YES

1365

748

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.59%chance

243409

OptionVotes

YES

1350

843

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

May 3, 5:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5.8%chance

283328

OptionVotes

YES

3139

684

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

24662

OptionVotes

YES

1164

737

Will John Tory run for Mayor of Toronto in the 2026 mayoral election?

Jun 19, 5:53 AMOct 26, 10:59 PM

1.97%chance

7661

OptionVotes

YES

706

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will the physical remains of Donald Trump lie in state in the capitol rotunda?

Mar 27, 10:28 PMDec 27, 10:20 PM

58.35%chance

9324

OptionVotes

YES

1064

950

John May News

Prediction markets for John May

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Will John Tory run for Mayor of Toronto in the 2026 mayoral election?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will the physical remains of Donald Trump lie in state in the capitol rotunda?

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