John May News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

2045

552

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.29%chance

224320

OptionVotes

YES

2687

574

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.33%chance

233405

OptionVotes

YES

1363

839

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

May 3, 5:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.46%chance

263026

OptionVotes

YES

2867

702

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221119

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Great Gatsby

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Mar 11, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.01%chance

5850

OptionVotes

YES

1830

546

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

24662

OptionVotes

YES

1164

737

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

When will Patrick Mahomes be "definitely washed" (cumulative market)

Feb 10, 7:44 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

1140

OptionProbability

by 2040 (Age ≤45)

by 2039 (Age ≤44)

by 2035 (Age ≤40)

by 2036 (Age ≤41)

by 2037 (Age ≤42)

by 2038 (Age ≤43)

by 2034 (Age ≤39)

by 2032 (Age ≤37)

by 2033 (Age ≤38)

by 2031 (Age ≤36)

by 2028 (Age ≤33)

by 2025 (Age ≤30)

Will John Tory run for Mayor of Toronto in the 2026 mayoral election?

Jun 19, 5:53 AMOct 26, 10:59 PM

31.87%chance

6101

OptionVotes

YES

146

John May News

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Prediction markets for John May

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

When will Patrick Mahomes be "definitely washed" (cumulative market)

Will John Tory run for Mayor of Toronto in the 2026 mayoral election?

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