John Reade News
Prediction markets for John Reade
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.08%chance
8138437
OptionVotes
27819
3071
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
33.32%chance
177377
OptionVotes
2045
552
Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?
Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
37.81%chance
152751
OptionVotes
1156
793
Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.
Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.57%chance
71249
OptionVotes
399
44
OptionProbability
99
85
75
66
65
64
64
61
57
56
50
50
43
41
19
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
59.88%chance
19407
OptionVotes
1081
928
When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
Jan 9, 8:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
4103
OptionProbability
25
18
16
12
7
6
6
6
4