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Prediction markets for John Reade

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1952

602

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.81%chance

152751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

793

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

231124

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Great Gatsby

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

99

85

75

66

65

64

64

61

61

57

50

50

43

41

19

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?

Jan 9, 8:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4103

OptionProbability

2028

2030-2034

2027

2029

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2100

2026

25

18

16

12

7

6

6

6

4

Will John M. Smart read Our Cosmic Purpose—coming in early 2027 via BenBella Books by 2030

Nov 19, 10:43 PM

00

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