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Prediction markets for John Wells

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.44%chance

13686082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6685

1740

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

17.43%chance

307834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2079

497

Will Sam Altman be alive on the one year anniversary of strong AGI being credibly announced?

Mar 26, 5:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.66%chance

132012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

402

134

What will be lowest Democracy Index received by the United States during the Trump Presidency?

Apr 17, 7:54 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

71798

OptionProbability

7.00-7.99

6.00-6.99

5.00-5.99

4.00-4.99

3.99 or lower

8.00 or higher

49

29

9

8

3

2

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

191089

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Great Gatsby

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

99

85

75

66

65

64

61

57

56

50

50

50

50

43

19

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will OpenAI lose a class-action copyright-related lawsuit before 2028?

Sep 21, 9:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.9%chance

9233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

114

Will the US undergo Stagflation before the 2026 midterms?

May 4, 11:12 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

7146

OptionProbability

Yes on Stagflation (high inflation & recession)

No abnormalities in inflation & GDP

Recession but no inflation abnormality

Inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation and recession

High inflation and GDP growth

High GDP but no inflation abnormality

Deflation/low inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation & high GDP growth

25

20

19

13

6

5

5

4

3

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