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Prediction markets for John Wentworth

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

15%chance

307794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2286

457

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.47%chance

177227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2427

402

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

236687

OptionProbability

Other

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

32

22

9

5

5

5

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.29%chance

214300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2687

574

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

213760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.33%chance

233405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

839

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.97%chance

303385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

711

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

Will John Wentworth's Gears of Aging series hold up in 2033?

Feb 25, 8:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.7%chance

11588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

900

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