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Prediction markets for Johnston

When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent

Feb 25, 4:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3599

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

41

20

15

15

9

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3444

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

>=2033

2029

2030

2031

2032

42

24

17

5

3

3

3

3

Are the aliens giving us superconductivity, cancer killing drugs and AI and the government is just leaking it slowly?

Aug 3, 4:05 AMAug 3, 1:59 PM

12.13%chance

11434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

150

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

24

14

14

14

14

9

9

When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test

Feb 25, 4:11 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2294

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

30

23

21

16

9

Who will be the first person to walk on Mars before December 31st, 2039

Dec 5, 4:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8276

OptionProbability

Nobody

Other

Jared Issacman

Sarah Gillis

Alyssa Carson

Elon Musk

Jeff Bezos

44

31

21

1

1

1

1

When will a robot assemble flat-pack furniture from printed instructions?

Feb 25, 4:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3201

OptionProbability

Jan 2026-Dec 2027

>=2036

Jan 2028-Dec 2029

Jan 2030-Dec 2031

Jan 2032-Dec 2033

Jan 2034-Dec 2035

23

20

17

15

12

12

Will the Okapi (Okapia johnstoni) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 7, 2:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.55%chance

5193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

563

420

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

Will Denver mayor Mike Johnston be successful in significantly reducing homelessness during his current term?

Sep 1, 6:55 AMJul 1, 6:00 AM

38.43%chance

542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

96

Will Denver, Colorado Mayor Mike Johnston win reelection in 2027?

Sep 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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