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Prediction markets for Johnston

When will a cloud provider attribute an incident resolution to an autonomous AI agent

Feb 25, 4:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3599

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

41

20

15

15

9

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

24

14

14

14

14

9

9

Who will be the first person to walk on Mars before December 31st, 2039

Dec 5, 4:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8276

OptionProbability

Nobody

Other

Jared Issacman

Sarah Gillis

Alyssa Carson

Elon Musk

Jeff Bezos

44

31

21

1

1

1

1

When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test

Feb 25, 4:11 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

1244

OptionProbability

>=2030

2027

2028

2029

2026

30

23

21

16

10

Will the Okapi (Okapia johnstoni) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 7, 2:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.55%chance

5193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

563

420

When will a robot assemble flat-pack furniture from printed instructions?

Feb 25, 4:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2181

OptionProbability

>=2036

Jan 2028-Dec 2029

Jan 2026-Dec 2027

Jan 2030-Dec 2031

Jan 2032-Dec 2033

Jan 2034-Dec 2035

22

19

16

16

13

13

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

Are the aliens giving us superconductivity, cancer killing drugs and AI and the government is just leaking it slowly?

Aug 3, 4:05 AMAug 3, 1:59 PM

12.13%chance

9162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

150

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

>=2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

16

12

12

12

12

12

12

11

Will Denver mayor Mike Johnston be successful in significantly reducing homelessness during his current term?

Sep 1, 6:55 AMJul 1, 6:00 AM

42%chance

432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

102

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