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Prediction markets for Joseph

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

Aug 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:04 AM

46.86%chance

291199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

907

When will Joseph Heinrich’s next book come out?

Aug 19, 1:04 AMAug 19, 1:03 AM

4596

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2035

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

15

12

10

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

6

Who will be the Joseph Welch of Trumpism? (Resolves in 2045)

Mar 3, 9:15 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

7478

OptionProbability

No single individual will emerge as a clear 'Joseph Welch' figure

A Republican politician who breaks with the party

A whistleblower from within Trump's inner circle

A celebrity or public figure with broad appeal

A Supreme Court Justice

A former Trump administration official

A religious leader

A high-profile journalist or media personality

A prominent legal figure or judge

A Democratic politician

A tech industry leader

93

42

42

28

17

17

17

13

11

11

11

Joseph Stock

Apr 11, 6:17 AM

6260

OptionProbability

NO

YES

259

106

Will Jose Luis Ricon name his baby "Jesus Christ", ordaining Jose as the second coming of St. Joseph?

Sep 29, 4:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9%chance

2173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

33

Will Joseph Anderson's Witcher 3 review be released first, or will the Russia-Ukraine War end first?

Jan 20, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

376

OptionProbability

Witcher 3 review releases first

Russia-Ukraine War ends first

65

35

ICC hears other cases besides Joseph Kony, in absentia, before EOY2029.

Sep 9, 7:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.48%chance

351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Is Sonia Joseph destined to become a comedian by 2045?

Aug 9, 5:11 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will the Darwin Godel Machine be applied to one of Joseph Suarez's RL environments, like pufferfish by 2028?

May 31, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will a fanfic of repligate, gwern, JDP, Sonia Joseph,andgaspode going thru Hogwarts together +saving the world by 2028

Jun 11, 5:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Joseph Bankman be in custody any time through mid 2028?

Jan 2, 8:11 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

45.25%chance

210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

If Jose is Spanish Joseph, then is Jose Luis ricon the second coming of st Joseph?

Aug 15, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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