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Prediction markets for Julie Chang

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

3.01%chance

6937642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4564

716

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?

Jul 7, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

3.31%chance

308537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3191

836

Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?

Apr 1, 11:44 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

193986

OptionProbability

Liberal Democrats

Conservatives

Labour

A coalition of some description

No Party

Other

Green Party

Reform UK

32

28

21

5

5

5

2

1

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

39.81%chance

241737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

948

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.68%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

947

When in 2026 will OS-World Verified be saturated by AI models?

Dec 22, 1:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51041

OptionProbability

Jul-Sep 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

Jan-Mar 2026

44

29

18

10

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

3587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will the next British Genaral election take place before the regular deadline in 2029?

Mar 1, 8:58 PMAug 15, 10:00 PM

96.19%chance

8475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

503

20

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

Oct 30, 12:01 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

71.56%chance

5152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

98

Country in what region will merge, split, or name change first?

Jul 8, 10:30 PMJan 31, 12:00 AM

998

OptionProbability

Asia

Africa

North America

Europe

Middle East

South America

35

24

15

11

11

5

Thailand election 2026

Dec 18, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.18%chance

253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

41.43%chance

449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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