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Prediction markets for Julie Chang

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

3.01%chance

6937642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4564

716

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

84%chance

3014119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2291

436

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?

Jul 7, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

7.48%chance

286538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

923

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

204790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4917

203

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.68%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

947

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

52.02%chance

231487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

698

Will July 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?

Jun 14, 4:19 PMAug 18, 12:25 PM

7.46%chance

4266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

28

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3185

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

89

11

Will there be any new national parks by the end of 2040?

Jul 8, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.71%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

37

Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jul 2, 12:12 AMDec 4, 1:25 PM

32.32%chance

754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

82

Daniel Lurie runs for governor of California before 2035

Nov 1, 12:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.

Jul 24, 12:28 AMJan 1, 6:00 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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