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Prediction markets for Julie Chang

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?

Jul 7, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

7.45%chance

266516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

923

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.39%chance

194540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4667

214

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

84.96%chance

182044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2377

421

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.28%chance

251473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

942

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

626

What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Dec 31, 4:24 AMJul 15, 6:59 AM

41319

OptionProbability

Section 3 open

Section 2 open

Section 1 open

No sections fully open

49

34

12

5

Gaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?

Oct 21, 12:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.7%chance

8539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

UK has new prime minister in 2026?

Nov 17, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

14397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

If I go to Manifest, will I regret going?

Jan 6, 2:07 PMJul 1, 1:03 PM

33.14%chance

12219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

Melissa Hurtado (incumbent)

Mike Boudreaux

Other

79

10

10

Will climate change strengthen the North American Monsoon?

Feb 14, 11:30 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

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