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Prediction markets for Julie Chang

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

80.39%chance

299019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

494

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?

Jul 7, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

7.58%chance

276518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

925

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

204790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4917

203

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.28%chance

251473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

942

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

626

When will Ben Stokes give up the Test Captaincy

Jul 5, 9:25 AMJul 6, 9:24 AM

6776

OptionProbability

Other

Feb - April 2026

May 2026

January 2026

August 2025

November 2025

73

11

8

6

1

1

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

91

Will Glencore's Congo deal result in a 2% increase in global copper supply by July 2026?

Feb 17, 12:02 PMFeb 17, 12:02 PM

21.63%chance

2127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

League of Legends roster changes before July

Apr 9, 5:18 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

Ninjas in Pyjamas

Nongshim RedForce

Gen.G

Hanwha Life Esports

KT Rolster

Bilibili Gaming

Invictus Gaming

T1

Top Esports

59

50

50

50

41

41

41

34

34

Will Skyler Vox top 750,000,000 Video views On Pornhub by end of July 17th 2026?

Feb 8, 2:53 PMJul 17, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will anyone between Dream or Drdonut step down as co-owner of MCPVP.com before August?

May 5, 4:42 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

54.3%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

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