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Prediction markets for Julie Chang

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

84.47%chance

288564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2332

429

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?

Jul 7, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

7.45%chance

266516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

923

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

204790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4917

203

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.28%chance

251473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

942

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

626

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

331247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

If I go to Manifest, will I regret going?

Jan 6, 2:07 PMJul 1, 1:03 PM

30.19%chance

13229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

91

When in 2026 will OS-World Verified be saturated by AI models?

Dec 22, 1:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2100

OptionProbability

Jul-Sep 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

Jan-Mar 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

31

29

20

20

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

40.25%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Mar 12, 8:03 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

67.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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