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Prediction markets for Julie Chang

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

3.01%chance

6937642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4564

716

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

61.53%chance

3514537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

791

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?

Jul 7, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

7.48%chance

296837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

923

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.73%chance

215840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5967

168

Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?

Apr 1, 11:44 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

193986

OptionProbability

Liberal Democrats

Conservatives

Labour

A coalition of some description

No Party

Other

Green Party

Reform UK

32

28

21

5

5

5

2

1

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

13.68%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

947

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

52.02%chance

231487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

698

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3185

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

89

11

Will there be any new national parks by the end of 2040?

Jul 8, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.71%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

37

Country in what region will merge, split, or name change first?

Jul 8, 10:30 PMJan 31, 12:00 AM

998

OptionProbability

Asia

Africa

North America

Europe

Middle East

South America

35

24

15

11

11

5

Thailand election 2026

Dec 18, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.18%chance

253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

41.43%chance

449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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