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Prediction markets for K2

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120324346

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Gemini 4

GPT-6

Any model announced before 2027

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

Claude 5 Opus

Gemini 3.5

OpenAI o4

GPT-5.5

DeepSeek-V4

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

90

88

86

85

81

81

80

73

73

72

65

60

58

56

54

27

24

23

14

13

13

13

13

12

10

10

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.3%chance

5565193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

42279

2365

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Sep 13, 12:30 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7.79%chance

5010225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2731

706

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

Sep 15, 1:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5%chance

324183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1838

914

Did humanity discover life on K2-18b?

Apr 18, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.81%chance

213711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3033

330

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Sep 17, 6:38 AMSep 22, 4:59 AM

16.85%chance

243004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

917

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

Other

Mars

Europa

Titan

Enceladus

Venus

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

58

18

8

6

5

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we prove that aliens are real before April?

Feb 9, 12:02 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.25%chance

162045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

890

11

Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?

Apr 17, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.97%chance

151064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

706

14

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Would a randomized controlled trial show horoscopes to work better than horoscope skeptics?

Dec 9, 8:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

120

Will India control either mountain K2 or Nanga Parbat before Jan 1 2027

May 10, 3:08 PMJan 1, 4:01 PM

5.52%chance

6385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

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