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K2 News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

180540238

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

GPT-6.5

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Grok 5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Gemini 4

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

90

88

88

87

85

85

84

83

82

80

79

78

69

65

47

32

25

13

10

10

9

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

66140982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69999

1429

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Sep 13, 12:30 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7.68%chance

5010228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2764

703

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

158573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

Sep 15, 1:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.65%chance

345637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2472

886

Did humanity discover life on K2-18b?

Apr 18, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.3%chance

213765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3124

320

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Sep 17, 6:38 AMSep 22, 4:59 AM

14.9%chance

253154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

888

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

Other

Mars

Europa

Titan

Enceladus

Venus

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

58

18

8

6

5

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?

Apr 17, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.03%chance

171170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

10

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.42%chance

7678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

693

Would a randomized controlled trial show horoscopes to work better than horoscope skeptics?

Dec 9, 8:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

120

Will India control either mountain K2 or Nanga Parbat before Jan 1 2027

May 10, 3:08 PMJan 1, 4:01 PM

5.52%chance

6385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

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