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K2 News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161478657

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Grok 5

Gemini 4

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Gemini 3.5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

88

84

83

83

79

79

74

74

72

65

61

56

52

49

44

26

19

18

17

13

10

6

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.46%chance

5776730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38061

2627

Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)

Sep 13, 12:30 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7.79%chance

5010225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2731

706

Will K2-18b be generally agreed to harbor alien life by 2027?

Sep 15, 1:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5%chance

334833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1838

914

Did humanity discover life on K2-18b?

Apr 18, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.52%chance

213761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3083

324

Is there life on K2-18 b?

Sep 17, 6:38 AMSep 22, 4:59 AM

15.51%chance

253104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

897

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

Other

Mars

Europa

Titan

Enceladus

Venus

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

58

18

8

6

5

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.1%chance

112249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

Will NASA announce that there is life on K2-18b with a high degree probability before January 1st, 2027?

Apr 17, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.5%chance

171168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

810

12

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Will India control either mountain K2 or Nanga Parbat before Jan 1 2027

May 10, 3:08 PMJan 1, 4:01 PM

5.52%chance

6385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

When will Krea 2 weights become publicly available?

May 25, 2:46 PMSep 1, 4:00 AM

120

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2027 to April 30, 2027

May 1, 2027 to August 31, 2027

September 1, 2027 or later

Before Jan 1, 2027

27

27

27

18

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