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Prediction markets for Kar

Karol Nawrocki sworn in as President of Poland on August 6?

Jun 24, 3:03 PMAug 6, 2:53 PM

94%chance

185881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3958

253

Will Karen Bass be the Mayor of Los Angeles on December 31, 2025?

Jan 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.53%chance

203880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2538

505

Will Karen Bass be recalled as mayor of Los Angeles before 2026?

Jan 12, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.03%chance

152854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3175

315

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Feb 21, 8:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10%chance

171308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

972

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Apr 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.37%chance

131293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

664

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

25.12%chance

371105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

887

Will Elon Musk have been on at least one date with Kim Kardashian by 2030?

May 19, 3:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.89%chance

18904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

899

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

Will Kylian Mbappe score more goals than Karim Benzema for Real Madrid?

Aug 14, 10:47 PMAug 22, 9:59 PM

29.12%chance

6706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.17%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

961

Will any of the Kardashians be on OnlyFans by 2030?

Jan 4, 5:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.42%chance

15509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

985

Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.42%chance

13149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

947

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