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OptionProbability
🇺🇸 A. Li vs 🇨🇴 M. Camila Osorio Serrano [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇭🇺 A. Bondár vs 🇺🇸 E. Mandlik [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇵🇱 M. Linette vs 🇺🇸 E. Navarro (15) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇦🇺 S. Hunter vs 🇪🇸 J. Bouzas Maneiro [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇭🇷 P. Marcinko vs 🇩🇪 T. Maria [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇸 C. Gauff (3) vs 🇷🇺 K. Rakhimova [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇦🇺 P. Hon vs 🇨🇦 M. Stakusic [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇿 L. Klimovicova vs 🇬🇧 F. Jones [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇿 L. Noskova (13) vs 🇱🇻 D. Semenistaja [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇷🇺 O. Selekhmeteva vs 🇩🇪 E. Seidel [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇿 K. Muchova (19) vs 🇷🇴 J. Cristian [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇸 A. Parks vs 🇵🇭 A. Eala [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇸 J. Pegula (6) vs 🇷🇺 A. Zakharova [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇧🇪 E. Mertens (21) vs 🇹🇭 L. Tararudee [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇦 V. Mboko (17) vs 🇦🇺 E. Jones [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇭🇷 I. Jović vs 🇺🇸 K. Volynets [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇯🇵 N. Osaka (16) vs 🇭🇷 A. Ruzic [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇦🇺 M. Inglis vs 🇦🇺 K. Birrell [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇸 A. Krueger vs 🇨🇿 S. Bejlek [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇿 T. Valentova vs 🇦🇺 M. Joint [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇫🇷 V. Gracheva vs 🇨🇭 V. Golubic [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇳 X. Wang vs 🇺🇦 A. Kalinina [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇿 K. Pliskova vs 🇺🇸 S. Stephens [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇦🇹 J. Grabher vs 🇮🇹 E. Cocciaretto [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) vs 🇸🇮 K. Juvan [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇷🇴 S. Cirstea vs 🇩🇪 E. Lys [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇷🇺 A. Kalinskaya vs 🇬🇧 S. Kartal [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇩🇪 L. Siegemund vs 🇷🇺 L. Samsonova (18) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇨🇳 Z. Bai [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇹🇷 Z. Sonmez vs 🇭🇺 A. Bondár [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇦 E. Svitolina (12) vs 🇵🇱 L. Klimovicova [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇦 V. Mboko (17) vs 🇺🇸 C. McNally [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇰🇿 Y. Putintseva vs 🇫🇷 E. Jacquemot [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇦🇹 A. Potapova vs 🇬🇧 E. Raducanu (28) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 C. Gauff (3) vs 🇷🇸 O. Danilovic [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇿 K. Muchova (19) vs 🇺🇸 A. Parks [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇷🇴 E. Ruse vs 🇦🇺 A. Tomljanovic [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 I. Jović (29) vs 🇦🇺 P. Hon [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 J. Pegula (6) vs 🇺🇸 M. Kessler [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇷🇺 O. Selekhmeteva vs 🇪🇸 P. Badosa (25) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇿 L. Noskova (13) vs 🇦🇺 T. Preston (WC) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇳 X. Wang vs 🇱🇻 J. Ostapenko (24) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 P. Stearns vs 🇭🇷 P. Marcinko [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) vs 🇫🇷 V. Gracheva [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇧🇪 E. Mertens (21) vs 🇯🇵 M. Uchijima [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇿 N. Bartunkova (Q) vs 🇨🇭 B. Bencic (10) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇯🇵 N. Osaka (16) vs 🇷🇴 S. Cirstea [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇦🇺 M. Inglis (Q) vs 🇩🇪 L. Siegemund [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇷🇺 A. Kalinskaya (31) vs 🇦🇹 J. Grabher [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇦🇹 A. Potapova [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇨🇦 V. Mboko (17) vs 🇩🇰 C. Tauson (14) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇺🇸 I. Jović (29) vs 🇮🇹 J. Paolini (7) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇺🇸 C. Gauff (3) vs 🇺🇸 H. Baptiste [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇨🇿 K. Muchova (19) vs 🇵🇱 M. Linette [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇺🇦 E. Svitolina (12) vs 🇷🇺 D. Shnaider (23) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇺🇸 J. Pegula (6) vs 🇷🇺 O. Selekhmeteva [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) vs 🇨🇿 T. Valentova [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇧🇪 E. Mertens (21) vs 🇨🇿 N. Bartunkova (Q) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇨🇦 V. Mboko (17) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇺🇸 C. Gauff (3) vs 🇨🇿 K. Muchova (19) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇺🇦 E. Svitolina (12) vs 🇷🇺 M. Andreeva (8) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇺🇸 J. Pegula (6) vs 🇺🇸 M. Keys (9) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) vs 🇧🇪 E. Mertens (21) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇺🇸 I. Jovic (29) [Australian Open – Quarterfinals]
🇺🇸 J. Pegula (6) vs 🇺🇸 A. Anisimova (4) [Australian Open – Quarterfinals]
🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) vs 🇵🇱 I. Swiatek (2) [Australian Open – Quarterfinals]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇺🇦 E. Svitolina (12) [Australian Open – Semifinals]
🇵🇭 A. Eala vs 🇹🇷 Z. Sonmez (WC) [Abu Dhabi – Round 1]
🇺🇦 D. Yastremska vs 🇧🇷 B. Haddad Maia [Abu Dhabi – Round 1]
🇨🇿 S. Bejlek vs 🇱🇻 J. Ostapenko (7) [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇩🇰 C. Tauson (3) vs 🇨🇭 S. Waltert [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇺🇸 M. Kessler vs 🇨🇦 L. Fernandez (6) [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇷🇺 L. Samsonova (5) vs 🇮🇩 J. Tjen [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇺🇸 H. Baptiste vs 🇺🇸 E. Navarro (4) [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇩🇰 C. Tauson (3) vs 🇺🇸 M. Kessler [Abu Dhabi – Quarterfinal]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇨🇳 Z. Bai [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇯🇵 N. Osaka (16) vs 🇦🇺 M. Inglis (Q) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇨🇭 B. Bencic (1) vs 🇬🇧 S. Kartal [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
Doha tk
🇬🇷 M. Sakkari vs 🇷🇺 M. Andreeva (8) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇬🇷 M. Sakkari vs 🇷🇺 M. Andreeva (8) [Australian Open – Round 1]
Doha tk (will NA)
🇺🇸 H. Baptiste vs 🇷🇺 E. Alexandrova (2) [Abu Dhabi – Semifinal]
🇨🇿 S. Bejlek vs 🇩🇰 C. Tauson (3) [Abu Dhabi WTA 500 – Semifinal]
🇦🇺 T. Gibson vs 🇷🇺 D. Shnaider (23) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇦 Y. Starodubtseva vs 🇦🇺 A. Tomljanovic [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇴 E. Arango vs 🇺🇸 M. Kessler [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇸🇮 V. Erjavec vs 🇵🇱 M. Frech [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇸 S. Kenin vs 🇺🇸 P. Stearns [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇭 S. Waltert vs 🇺🇸 A. Anisimova (4) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇰🇿 Z. Diyas vs 🇪🇸 P. Badosa (25) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇭🇺 D. Galfi vs 🇩🇰 C. Tauson (14) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇿 B. Krejcikova vs 🇷🇺 D. Shnaider (23) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇲🇽 R. Zarazua vs 🇨🇿 M. Bouzkova [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇦🇷 S. Sierra vs 🇯🇵 M. Uchijima [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇭🇷 D. Vekic vs 🇷🇺 M. Andreeva (8) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇳 Y. Yuan vs 🇵🇱 I. Swiatek (2) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇦 L. Fernandez (22) vs 🇺🇸 J. Tjen [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇭🇺 P. Udvardy vs 🇨🇿 K. Siniakova [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇨🇳 S. Zhang vs 🇦🇺 T. Preston [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇺🇦 O. Oliynykova vs 🇺🇸 M. Keys (9) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇳🇿 L. Sun vs 🇨🇿 L. Fruhvirtova [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇷🇺 D. Kasatkina vs 🇨🇿 N. Bartunkova [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇸🇰 R. Sramkova vs 🇱🇻 J. Ostapenko (24) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇬🇧 K. Boulter vs 🇨🇭 B. Bencic (10) [Australian Open – Round 1]
🇦🇺 T. Gibson vs 🇷🇺 D. Shnaider (23) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇬🇷 M. Sakkari vs 🇷🇺 M. Andreeva (8) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇦🇺 S. Hunter vs 🇺🇸 H. Baptiste [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇿 P. Kudermetova vs 🇩🇰 C. Tauson (14) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇵🇱 M. Frech vs 🇮🇹 J. Paolini (7) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 A. Li vs 🇵🇱 M. Linette [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 J. Tjen vs 🇨🇿 K. Pliskova [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇺🇸 A. Krueger vs 🇺🇸 M. Keys (9) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇿 K. Siniakova vs 🇺🇸 A. Anisimova (4) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇿 L. Fruhvirtova (Q) vs 🇨🇿 T. Valentova [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇨🇿 M. Bouzkova vs 🇵🇱 I. Swiatek (2) [Australian Open – Round 2]
🇹🇷 Z. Sonmez (Q) vs 🇰🇿 Y. Putintseva [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇷🇴 E. Ruse vs 🇷🇺 M. Andreeva (8) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇨🇿 K. Pliskova vs 🇺🇸 M. Keys (9) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇨🇿 L. Noskova (13) vs 🇨🇳 X. Wang [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇺🇸 P. Stearns vs 🇺🇸 A. Anisimova (4) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇷🇺 A. Kalinskaya (31) vs 🇵🇱 I. Swiatek (2) [Australian Open – Round 3]
🇰🇿 Y. Putintseva vs 🇺🇸 I. Jovic (29) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇨🇳 X. Wang vs 🇺🇸 A. Anisimova (4) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇦🇺 M. Inglis (Q) vs 🇵🇱 I. Swiatek (2) [Australian Open – Round 4]
🇺🇸 C. Gauff (3) vs 🇺🇦 E. Svitolina (12) [Australian Open – Quarterfinals]
🇺🇸 J. Pegula (6) vs 🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) [Australian Open – Semifinals]
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka (1) vs 🇰🇿 E. Rybakina (5) [Australian Open – Final]
🇷🇺 O. Selekhmeteva (Q) vs 🇱🇻 J. Ostapenko (7) [Abu Dhabi – Round 1]
🇧🇾 A. Sasnovich vs 🇵🇭 A. Eala [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇺🇦 D. Yastremska vs 🇷🇺 E. Alexandrova (2) [Abu Dhabi – Round 2]
🇷🇺 L. Samsonova (5) vs 🇺🇸 H. Baptiste [Abu Dhabi – Quarterfinal]
🇬🇧 S. Kartal vs 🇨🇿 S. Bejlek [Abu Dhabi – Quarterfinal]
🇵🇭 A. Eala vs 🇷🇺 E. Alexandrova (2) [Abu Dhabi – Quarterfinal]
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
89
76
52
50
50
50
29
28
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
9588
101
OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
The US bombs Iran
Major cyberattack on Western frontier AI lab
Major Earthquake in/near Japan > 7 Richter
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
India detonates a nuclear weapon
Russia cedes territory to China
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
92
86
84
81
78
75
75
70
70
70
66
66
66
66
63
61
60
60
60
57
55
55
55
55
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
47
47
45
45
45
45
43
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43
43
42
42
42
41
40
40
40
37
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
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34
34
34
33
33
33
31
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
22
15
13
12
7
5
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1035
838
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1064
853
OptionProbability
The USA
China
India
Other
Japan
Germany
Russia
55
36
5
3
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1060
962
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1742
858
OptionProbability
Human war (any type)
Climate crisis
Societal collapse
AI (both misaligned and misused)
Coronal mass ejection
Nuclear war
Global pandemic
Self-replicating machines (macro, micro, nano, or otherwise)
Supervolcano eruption
Impact event
Close supernova
Mass suicides
Kessler syndrome
War with extraterrestrials
Outside object disturbing the solar system gravitationally
67
57
48
45
44
43
41
32
30
15
11
10
9
9
7
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1095
948
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2248
445
OptionVotes
YES
NO
90
55