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Prediction markets for Keys
When will a bridge like the Francis Scott Key Bridge In Baltimore be accessible again?
Mar 26, 8:37 AMJun 28, 9:59 PM
5817210
OptionProbability
81
72
44
12
4
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?
Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM
85.8%chance
949754
OptionVotes
2254
105
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
67.06%chance
177310
OptionVotes
1427
701
Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?
Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.62%chance
224037
OptionVotes
1437
935
By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?
Apr 3, 10:02 PMApr 11, 3:59 AM
27.08%chance
372118
OptionVotes
1153
911
Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.45%chance
281988
OptionVotes
1205
883
What will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer)
Mar 26, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
341715
OptionProbability
100
100
82
65
41
36
34
34
32
29
25
23
20
14
14
6
Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?
Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM
22.88%chance
71550
OptionVotes
1836
545
Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?
Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM
76.77%chance
381544
OptionVotes
2360
1812
Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?
Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
4.98%chance
161505
OptionVotes
2046
896
[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?
Mar 6, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
62.19%chance
15217
OptionVotes
1008
974
Will "We might be missing some key feature of AI ta..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 22, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
110
OptionVotes
1000
1000