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Top stories

Alcaraz Advances as Venus Williams, Keys Exit in Dramatic US Open Start

Alcaraz Advances as Venus Williams, Keys Exit in Dramatic US Open Start

Authors

23

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Keys

When will a bridge like the Francis Scott Key Bridge In Baltimore be accessible again?

Mar 26, 8:37 AMJun 28, 9:59 PM

5817410

OptionProbability

Summer Solstice 2031

Summer Solstice 2030

Summer Solstice 2029

Summer Solstice 2028

Summer Solstice 2027

Spring Equinox 2027

Summer Solstice 2026

Summer Solstice 2024

Halloween 2024

Christmas 2024

Summer Solstice 2025

Christmas 2025

81

72

44

12

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

91.43%chance

9410054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2554

67

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?

Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.62%chance

224037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

935

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Apr 3, 10:02 PMApr 11, 3:59 AM

20.91%chance

372418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

817

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82%chance

382155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2971

1655

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?

Mar 6, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.19%chance

15217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

974

Will "We might be missing some key feature of AI ta..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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